Patrick Kane was rumored to be interested in reuniting with Alex DeBrincat in Detroit. Here's why that doesn't add up for the Red Wings
Patrick Kane was rumored to be interested in reuniting with Alex DeBrincat in Detroit. Here's why that doesn't add up for the Red Wings
According to a rumor that began swirling over the weekend, free agent winger Patrick Kane is interested in reuniting with his former teammate Alex DeBrincat in Detroit.
The rumor came from the Daily Herald's John Dietz and cited "someone who knows Kane very well" as its source.
Before proceeding any further, it's important to heed the qualifier in the final sentence of Dietz' report: "Of course there has to be mutual interest, so we'll see if Detroit extends an olive branch..." In other words, Dietz can confirm Kane's interest in the Red Wings, but he has no evidence that Detroit reciprocates that interest.
TSN's Chris Johnston provided more context to Kane's free agency earlier in the week on TSN 1050 in Toronto. The Buffalo-born winger underwent hip resurfacing surgery on June 1st, changing the nature of his approach to free agency, as Johnston explained.
"Since he's not going to be ready for the start of the season, even as well as his recovery's gone from the hip procedure, he wanted to see how things developed, which teams he thought might be the best fit," Johnston said. "I don't know that he's focused on just the one team. I think that there's a couple different situations that would probably be appealing."
With that report, Johnston (who to be blunt has a much longer track record of breaking NHL news than Dietz) made clear that while Dietz may have been correct in his assertion of Kane's interest in Detroit, that interest isn't exclusive and the Wings may be just one option Kane and his advisors are considering.
Johnson added that Kane's camp was optimistic about the progress he'd made after the surgery, with Kane having already begun skating ahead of schedule. Johnson suggested that the 34-year-old would be looking to get back to game action some time in November or January.
In a recent interview with the Associated Press, Kane offered similar assessments—expressing optimism about the state of his recovery while re-affirming that he's in no rush to sign a new contract.
“It’s just exciting to see progression and just feeling better on the ice—kind of getting back to my old self, so it’s pretty exciting," Kane said. He added, "You know, it might be better to take the full time and just make sure I’m at 105-110% instead of just 90-95. But it’s a lot better than I was last year.”
So, where does that leave a potential Kane-Red Wings marriage?
The argument in favor of Detroit bringing in Kane seems to lean heavily on nostalgia. First, it yearns for the first half of the 2010s, when Kane and the Chicago Blackhawks ruled the postseason annually, and secondly, it calls back to the five seasons Kane played with DeBrincat in Chicago.
Productive though those years were and evident as the chemistry between Kane and DeBrincat may have been, we just saw the same logic blow up in the New York Rangers' face last postseason.
Looking to add some more offensive punch for the playoff push, New York acquired Kane at the modest cost of a conditional '23 second round pick and a '23 third rounder at the trade deadline a year ago.
Many doubted Kane's efficacy as he continued to march through his 30s, but those in favor argued that Kane's pedigree as a playoff scorer and his chemistry with Rangers star Artemi Panarin (who had broken into the NHL on the same line as Kane with Chicago) would alleviate those doubts.
Instead, the move fell flat. Kane never had a clear role, and he seemed to disrupt the Rangers' chemistry more than he benefited from it. A power play unit that has been lethal for years appeared confused by the obligation to incorporate Kane. There was no sign of the dynamic connection between Kane and Panarin that had once existed in Chicago.
Kane wound up with a respectable six points in seven playoff games, but all but one were assists, and it was difficult to take any kind of comfort from first round defeat for a team with far loftier aspirations. Even as he posted those points, no one would confuse the Kane of the '23 postseason with the player who once ruled the playoffs in Chicago. The finishing touch, the dynamism in transition, the sense of inevitability that he flaunted in Chicago were gone.
So, yes, Kane and DeBrincat were once successful together in Chicago, but that has little bearing on whether he would be a valuable signing for the '23-24 season in Detroit. We have a direct example of the danger of leaning on nostalgia ahead of present results when it comes to adding Kane.
And that's before we get to the bigger problem: Kane's health.
That Kane reports his recovery is ahead of schedule and that he feels much better than he did last year should come as no surprise, considering their sourcing. Kane is far from a disinterested party here, given that potentially millions of dollars hang in the balance based on the perception of his health around the league. To say anything other than "progress is good, and I'm feeling great" would be to undercut his own value on the open market.
This is not to say that it's impossible that Kane's condition has improved, but the number of players to make a successful comeback from hip resurfacing surgery is vanishingly small.
Nicklas Backstrom (a year Kane's senior) underwent that operation last summer, and he managed to return in time to play 39 games a year ago. He mustered just 21 points, comfortably below his pre-injury standard. Now, Backstrom faces existential questions about whether he will be able to continue his career further.
Even if Kane's updates on his own status are 100% accurate, and he really does feel better than he did a year ago, there is no assurance that such a feeling translates to him returning to the form he once enjoyed.
Based on Kane's comments to the AP, it seems reasonable to assume his return to action will come later rather than sooner (i.e. December rather than November). From there, he will still require some amount of acclimation period to get reacquainted with NHL game pace.
Meanwhile, the Red Wings have numerous better options to put alongside DeBrincat than an aging and injured (or recovering) Kane. If the goal is to maximize the production of Detroit's biggest summer acquisition, linemates like Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, Jonatan Berggren, J.T. Compher, or Andrew Copp are more enticing.
Kane might be able to put up points alongside DeBrincat (or even without him), but that alone doesn't justify his integration into this team. He's still a good set-up man and above average finisher, but you have to also consider the other side of the puck.
He has never been a defensive stalwart, but his defensive numbers last year were shocking. This chart from HockeyViz.com shows just how much opposing teams enjoyed playing in the offensive zone when Kane was on the ice a year ago:
At the end of the day, Kane isn't a fit in Detroit. Whatever remains of his past chemistry with DeBrincat, it's not enough to outweigh the questions about Kane's health and production. Even without a high-priced contract, I see little evidence to believe Patrick Kane would provide value to the Red Wings in 2023-24.
