First Period Disaster, Raymond and Kane Decisive, Steady Performances from Copp and Walman-Seider: Red Wings-Blue Jackets Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings 4-3 OT win over the Columbus Blue Jackets
Mandatory Credit: Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports - First Period Disaster, Raymond and Kane Decisive, Steady Performances from Copp and Walman-Seider: Red Wings-Blue Jackets Statistical ReviewLast night, the Red Wings earned a 4-3 overtime victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets at Little Caesars Arena. It was a chaotic process that led to a badly needed result. In the first period, Detroit showed some of the worst tendencies that have haunted the team throughout its present skid of just two wins in its last 10 games. However, thanks in large part to Lucas Raymond, the Red Wings were able to pick themselves up off the mat to overcome 0-2 and 2-3 deficits and find a way to win. For a clearer picture of a tumultuous game, let's take a look at the underlying numbers from last night's game.
The Big Picture
-Per MoneyPuck.com, Detroit earned a 3.13-2.9 advantage in expected goals over the course of last night's game, but it was hardly a smooth path to that result.
The first period was nothing short of a disaster. Columbus took a 2-0 lead, and they perhaps deserved even more of an advantage considering their control of the run of play. Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five during the first period, the Red Wings managed just a 13.24% share of xG, gave up four high-danger chances while creating just one, conceded 18 scoring chances while earning just two, and were out-shot 19-4.
Even with the victory, coach Derek Lalonde couldn't help but express his frustration with his team's start after the game, saying "I was flabbergasted. I was shocked. Disappointed. I never thought with this group that it felt like they quit, and I couldn't believe it."
-The Red Wings turned it on early in the second period and scored two quick goals, but they more or less flat-lined after tying the game before the second was five minutes old. In the third, despite conceding an early power play goal, Detroit was excellent at five-on-five. Per NST, the Red Wings earned a 85.44% xG share, a 3-0 advantage in high-danger chances, and a 10-1 advantage in scoring chances.
-For the game overall, Detroit's performance was not as encouraging as its results. In sum, again per NST, the Red Wings earned a 40.43% CorsiFor, a 45.45% share of scoring chances, a 41.67% share of high-danger chances, and a 35.68% share of xG at five-on-five. Of course, the degree of control Detroit exerted in the third is (1) in part a byproduct of score effects and (2) unsustainable, but the Red Wings will be well-served to better approximate it from puck drop moving forward to build on the success of last night's finish.
Individual Impacts
-Though this was not a game in which Detroit commanded play for all that long (a five minute spell to open the second period and the final 15 minutes or so of the third), it was a night in which the Red Wings' stars were decisive.
Lucas Raymond played 17:54 last night, scoring twice on four shots and a team-high 0.664 xG. He was without a doubt the best player on the ice, dragging Detroit to a result with his scoring touch. However, this wasn't a night on which Raymond consistently drove offense. He finished the game with just a 31.46% on-ice xG share on five-on-five. I say that not at all to suggest that Raymond was anything but excellent; instead, it's a reminder or perhaps reality check of what offense might have to look like for the Red Wings without Dylan Larkin available. Detroit might not be able to drive play to the same degree without Larkin, but it does need stars like Raymond to finish their chances when those opportunities arise.
Patrick Kane's numbers tell a similar story. He played 21:01, giving two assists and scoring the overtime winner. He had five shots and 0.457 xG. Kane was one of just six Red Wins to finish at a greater than 50% on-ice xG share at five-on-five (he did so narrowly at 50.97%). As with Raymond, it doesn't have to be an indictment of his performance to say he didn't consistently drive play in the right direction the way we've seen at different points throughout the season. Kane was able to take advantage of the chances he did create, even if he didn't drive a considerable volume of offense; it's a dangerous way to live because of a dependence on thin margins, but Kane and Raymond certainly made it work last night.
-On the opposite side of that coin, Andrew Copp didn't record a point last night, but he did deliver a steady play-driving performance. Copp played 16:22 (14:49 of it at five-on-five), putting up a team-high 69.75% share of on-ice xG. He played consistently with Michael Rasmussen (13:10 together at five-a-side) with a rotating cast on the other wing, including Christian Fischer (6:03), Joe Veleno (4:52), and Daniel Sprong (2:40). It hasn't always been easy for Copp in Larkin's absence, but last night was the kind of performance Detroit needed to supplement Kane and Raymond's decisiveness. That's an encouraging reference point heading into the final stages of the Red Wings' stretch run, and a good reminder of Copp's role in Detroit's success. He doesn't need to score to be effective if he can provide a reliable play-driving presence in the team's bottom six.
-On the back end, Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry did not exactly have an easy night together. In 15:38 at five-on-five, the pair finished down 0.114-0.644 by xG, though neither team actually scored in those minutes.
Edvinsson—playing in his third NHL game of the season and first since December 27th—showed legitimate promise, especially with respect to his progressive passing. Still, it's not as though Edvinsson helped Detroit with respect to play-driving, which has been troublesome of late for the Red Wings defense corps. Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect Edvinsson to immediately solve that issue, but it will be worth monitoring his progress in that regard if he does get a more extended run of NHL game action to close the season.
-Last night was a consistently strong performance from Moritz Seider and Ben Chiarot. In 15:07 together at five-on-five (much of it against the top Columbus line), the pair earned an 0.737-0.436 edge in xG and 1-0 advantage on the scoreboard. That's an encouraging performance for Detroit, considering much of Seider's best hockey in the last two years has come with Jake Walman; it's good to see Seider delivering strong results with a different defense partner with Walman on the shelf for the time being.
-Finally, James Reimer made 32 saves on 35 shots last night. In giving up three goals on 2.208 xG, Reimer put up a Goals Saved Above Expected of -0.79 per MoneyPuck. The third goal against in particular was one I suspect Reimer would want back, but on the whole, it was a solid performance, though certainly not an excellent one.
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