New York's Bottom Six Haunts Detroit: Red Wings-Rangers Statistical Review

A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 4-3 home loss to the New York Rangers Friday night

Last night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings missed an opportunity to gain ground in the crowded Eastern Conference wild card race, dropping a 4-3 decision to the visiting New York Rangers. Despite the result, it was not a poor performance from Detroit, but it wasn't a consistent or sustained enough effort to yield so much as a point against the NHL's top team at the moment. For a clearer sense of the game's successes and struggles, here's a look at the underlying numbers:

The Big Picture

-By all situations expected goals, the Rangers earned a 6.51-2.8 advantage over the course of the night.

It was in the first and third periods in which New York applied its greatest pressure and produced the majority of that margin. In the first, the Rangers out-chanced Detroit 2.89-0.99 by xG, and in the third, it was 2.692-0.687. Of course, New York is a dominant team—presently league leaders by points percentage and raw points—but that was simply too much offense to afford anybody and expect to come away with so much as a point.

-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, the Red Wings managed just a 46.24% CorsiFor, a 37.5% share of scoring chances, a 30.77% share of high-danger chances, and a 41.49% xG share (in the third period, it was just an 18.54% share of xG). The below heat map of five-on-five unblocked shot attempts tells a similar story, with New York getting the better of offensive volume and quality at five-on-five last night.

Individual Impacts

-The Red Wings top line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Patrick Kane struggled at five-on-five last night. In 13:52 (a team high), they put up just 0.228-1.288. Though they didn't concede an actual goal, the trio showed little cohesion and didn't manage to create any clear chances. Detroit needs those three to be leading its offense, and, at the moment, they aren't finding it together. I suspect the next experiment to attempt to spark something will be separating Kane and DeBrincat at five-on-five.

That idea, however, is complicated by the fact that the Red Wings' second line (David Perron, J.T. Compher, and Lucas Raymond) was excellent last night. In 11:49, they delivered strong underlying numbers and results, with an 0.765-0.382 edge by xG and a 1-0 advantage on the scoreboard.

The third line of Joe Veleno, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer also delivered a commanding performance. They only played 8:59 at five-on-five, but they earned an 0.263-0.018 advantage by xG and outscored their opponents 1-0. That kind of low-event, shift-winning hockey is exactly what Derek Lalonde wants from this line, and the goal is a bonus. When you put it all together, this was an A+ effort from the third line.

Meanwhile, Detroit's fourth line of Robby Fabbri, Austin Czarnik, and Daniel Sprong played just 4:52 but conceded two goals against. That can't happen from a fourth line.

The trio was on the ice for Barclay Goodrow's equalizer 25 seconds after Larkin made it 3-2 Red Wings in the second period. Per MoneyPuck, after Larkin's goal, Detroit had a 74.7% chance of winning; after Goodrow's, that number dropped to 46.1%. To some extent, that swing is a reflection of the fickle nature of a stat I don't tend to find especially instructive; however, it does provide an insight into the significance of allowing New York to immediately answer when the Red Wings had been playing their best hockey of the night.

-Goodrow's line—with Jimmy Vesey and Jonny Brodzinksi—was the Rangers' best Friday night. They played 10:59, putting up a 1.369-0.254 edge by xG and a 2-0 advantage on the scoreboard. Detroit, more or less, kept New York's big gunners under control at five-on-five, only to be undone by its depth players. That's a tough pill to swallow.

-On the bright side, Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry were dominant once again. They played 15:33 at five-on-five (tops among Red Wing defense pairs), earning an 0.75-0.096 xG lead and 1-0 edge in actual goals.

There are still moments where Edvinsson's youth comes out—an awkward stumble, accidentally putting a puck on his own net—but he's clearly figuring things out in a hurry at the NHL level. His 19:18 put him fifth on the team in terms of ice time, and his four hits were a team high. His physicality in killing plays was impressive once again.

-Finally, Alex Lyon was good in net against a busy work load, making 25 saves on 28 shots, good for 1.77 Goals Saved Above Expected according to MoneyPuck.