Larkin’s Instant Impact, Third Line Brilliance and Getting to the Net: An Islanders-Red Wings Statistical Review
A statistical review of the Red Wings' 6-3 win over the New York Islanders, featuring a look at Dylan Larkin's return to the lineup, the success of Detroit's third line, and the Red Wings' tendency to shoot near the net
Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports - Larkin’s Instant Impact, Third Line Brilliance and Getting to the Net: An Islanders-Red Wings Statistical ReviewThe Red Wings needed a win against the New York Islanders on Thursday — for playoff hopes and even for pride — and they delivered in a 6-3 rout.
With key contributions from the third line and a good first-period start for the first game in a while, Detroit put itself in far better postseason position than it did coming into this game.
Let’s look at how the Red Wings did it.
The Big Picture
Maybe because it’s chronological and maybe because it was just so significant against the backdrop of recent games, the first period really stood out in this game. Detroit wasn’t perfect and gave up some chances, but it also generated its own and didn’t play an entire period on its heels. Whereas the past stretch of games Detroit has shown a tendency to collapse when it makes an early mistake, it allowed no goals in the first period. Even in expected goals, Detroit led 0.532-0.297 in all situations as tracked by MoneyPuck. That was aided by a power play, but the result was really all the Red Wings needed.
But if the start was so good, the finish left a little bit lacking. The Islanders crashed the net heavily in the game’s final five minutes, generating a boatload of shots that flipped the run of play their way. Detroit stood tall in this late going, stopping everything and earning an empty-netter to seal the win. All told, New York finished with a 2.53-2.44 edge in expected goals per Moneypuck.
However, the Red Wings controlled the game for longer periods of time at even strength, and that’s reflected in their 1.67-1.12 lead in even strength expected goals. They started to pull away right around five minutes into the second period, which is when Detroit’s third line really started to create some scoring chances.
In terms of shooting locations, Detroit consistently went to the net to take its shots at even strength. Instead of shooting from the perimeter looking for tips, it went to high-percentage areas and embraced physicality to generate some good looks. This is another sign of a team that controlled this game, considering that the Islanders couldn’t stop them from getting to the net. When the Islanders went to the man advantage — and when they had an extra attacker — they got their chances down low. But overall, they seemed to settle for shots from further out.
Individual Impacts
Bo Horvat should’ve had a whale of a game. He should’ve scored at a couple key points for the Islanders.
Should’ve.
Instead, Horvat missed the net twice in Thursday’s game, including a yawning cage in the first period that could’ve been decisive in shaking a Red Wings team that up to that point in the night had played with confidence. Horvat generated a game-leading 0.96 expected goals, with only Dylan Larin (0.93) in the same ballpark as him. As far as handling offensive threats goes, Detroit survived in part by checking Horvat to block a pair of his shooting attempts and another part getting lucky that he missed the net on two of his other seven unblocked shots. The Islanders knew they wanted Horvat with the puck on his stick, but he just didn’t deliver this time around in a zero-point night.
On the Red Wings’ side, Larkin’s re-entry to the lineup went off without a hitch. He led the team offensively in a tempered 16:32 of ice time. The effects of his transition game made an immediate impact, evidenced by his single offensive zone start the entire game. Instead, he started 16 of his shifts on the fly and two each in the defensive and neutral zones. All this data is to say, Detroit trusted him to lug the puck north when he went out for a shift, and that’s an element that proved spotty without him these past few weeks.
Larkin also opened up his teammates a lot in terms of matchups. For all the talk of slotting teammates into more advantageous positions with Larkin back, Detroit coach Derek Lalonde played Larkin’s first line with Lucas Raymond and David Perron nearly the same ice time as Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher and Patrick Kane. Larkin’s line was far from perfect with a 34.78% Corsi per Natural Stat Trick, but that also included tough assignments against Mathew Barzal and his line.
In terms of overall success, no one came even close to the night Detroit’s third line had. Maybe it’s fitting that Detroit’s own “Identity Line” rounded into peak form against the Islanders. Regardless, it was substantial. Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp and Christian Fischer amassed a 0.875-0.284 lead on expected goals when they were on the ice, a fitting reflection of a night when this line tallied seven combined points. They started some of the most shifts in the defensive end — four for Fischer, three for Rasmussen and two for Copp — and 11 on the fly. If the Red Wings needed a tone-setting shift, Lalonde turned to the third line.
He also turned to Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry, who led all pairings with 15:41 of 5-on-5 play. For a rookie-and-vet pairing, such a heavy workload is a sign of trust for all parties involved. They showed a mixed performance — they helped the Red Wings score twice, but also got scored against twice (although the first was a five-hole gaffe that more so reflected the inconsistencies of goaltender James Reimer than this defense pairing’s merit).
This usage wasn’t just key for the pairing’s individual success, but it also took a heavy burden off of Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider, who played the least minutes at even strength and overall of any defense pairing. In smaller usage, they thrived. Despite starting in the neutral and defensive zones on eight out of 23 shifts, the pairing generated a 54.5% control over unblocked shots (Fenwick) and earned a 0.829-0.33 edge in expected goals. Put it this way: in smaller usage, this unit was able to take over a lot more than it had when it was heavily leaned on in other games.
Finally, in net, Reimer turned in an alright performance. He let in a trio of low-percentage shots that he probably wanted back, but those imperfections didn’t distract from the two high-danger and eight medium-danger shots he smothered. Reimer finished the night with a -0.47 goals saved above expected.
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