Report: Detroit Close on a Deal for Alex DeBrincat

According to Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek on the 32 Thoughts Podcast, Detroit is close to a deal with Ottawa to bring in Alex DeBrincat from Ottawa

On this morning's episode of 32 Thoughts: The Podcast, Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman expressed their belief that a deal between the Red Wings and Senators for Alex DeBrincat is close.

Marek said, "I have a hard time believing that at the end of all this [DeBrincat's new home] is not going to be Detroit."  Friedman added that he would believe Detroit will be DeBrincat's next destination "until [he's] proven wrong."  

Friedman said, "I've heard that Steve Yzerman is not crazy about term," then explained that while Yzerman was willing to offer a long-term deal to keep Dylan Larkin in red and white, he might not do the same for DeBrincat.  Friedman characterized Yzerman as a "grinder" at the negotiating table who will draw a hard line in the sand that he will not cross, which puts pressure on Ottawa to agree to a return and DeBrincat to agree to a new deal.

Here, it's worth providing a bit more context.  DeBrincat is an RFA with a qualifying offer of $9 million, which is to say his team must "qualify him" with a one-year $9 million deal or come to an agreement on an extension to retain his rights.  Given that DeBrincat is coming off a sub-standard season (27 goals, compared to 41 the year prior), that extension may well come in below a $9-million AAV.  

DeBrincat has just completed a three-year deal with an AAV of $6.4 million, which he signed with Chicago.  The Blackhawks traded DeBrincat to Ottawa at the draft a year ago for the 7th and 39th picks in that draft and a 2024 third rounder.

Where does all that leave us?  It's not totally clear.

DeBrincat was born and raised in Farmington Hills, and it's possible he has reduced his mental list of desired destinations to just one: Detroit.  If that's the case, Yzerman won't want to give up any premium assets to bring him aboard.

Yzerman mentioned at his pre-draft press conference that ideal trade targets are players young enough to remain with the Red Wings in a key role for years to come.  DeBrincat, just 25, certainly fits that description, but Friedman's point about Detroit's GM's stubborn negotiating style shouldn't be dismissed.  

It's not outside the realm of possibility that despite DeBrincat's desires to come to the Red Wings, Yzerman doesn't want to provide the contractual terms DeBrincat covets.  Given Yzerman's desire to add long-term contributors, trading for DeBrincat without an extension in place would seem a non-starter for the Red Wings.

From an Ottawa perspective, DeBrincat trimming his list reduces the expected asking price.  If there's only one team DeBrincat wants to go to, that team would be silly to fork over a king's ransom to make it happen.  Ottawa is unlikely to get back what it paid for the American winger.

So, to summarize, it appears DeBrincat knows he wants Detroit, and Detroit is interested at the right price.  Meanwhile, Ottawa knows it won't have DeBrincat much longer but still wants to maximize its return for a player it paid a sizable premium for a year ago.

Friedman and Marek are as well-connected as any journalists in hockey, so if they say a deal is close, I'm inclined to believe it is.  Nonetheless, there are still a few key differences to resolve between DeBrincat, Detroit, and Ottawa before the three parties arrive at a deal.