Is offense, defense, or goaltending the biggest concern for Detroit? Last night at the SAP Center in San Jose, the Detroit Red Wings overturned a 3-2 third-period deficit to earn a 5-3 win over the Sharks. Here's a look at the underlying numbers that defined Detroit's victory. Jan 2, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; Detroit Red Wings right wing Daniel Sprong (17) reacts after scoring a goal during the first period against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center at San Jose. [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjAzMzcyOTAwNzE0MDMwNTcz/usatsi_22213191.jpg] Jan 2, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; Detroit Red Wings right wing Daniel Sprong (17) reacts after scoring a goal during the first period against the San Jose Sharks at SAP Center at San Jose. THE BIG PICTURE -By all situations expected goals, the Red Wings beat San Jose 3.45-1.93, earning a 63.8% from MoneyPuck.com's Deserve to Win O'Meter. However, those figures are slightly deceptive, because, in fact at five-on-five, this was far from a dominant Detroit performance. Nearly a full goal of that 3.45 total came at five-on-four (0.96), and Michael Rasmussen's empty-net goal accounted for another 0.93. Per MoneyPuck, the five-on-five xG margin was just 1.51-1.49 for the Red Wings. Cumulative All Situations xG, courtesy of MoneyPuck [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjAzMzcyOTMyMzg5NDE0Mzgx/screenshot-2024-01-03-at-12213-pm.png] Cumulative All Situations xG, courtesy of MoneyPuck -Natural Stat Trick's five-on-five numbers show the extent to which the Sharks controlled this game. At five-a-side, the Red Wings earned just a 43.88% CorsiFor, a 26.67% share of scoring chances, a 38.46% share of high-danger chances, and a 44.9% share of expected goals. San Jose outscored the visitors 3-1 at five-on-five as well. However, Detroit dominated the special teams battle—going 2/4 on the power play while holding the Sharks' PP scoreless in two chances—and that proved enough to take the game. Five-on-Five Unblocked Shots Heat Map, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjAzMzcyOTM0MDAwMDI3MTE3/20232024-20586-5v5.png] Five-on-Five Unblocked Shots Heat Map, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick -The above heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots shows the nature of San Jose's game control. Detroit didn't generate a huge volume of offense at five-on-five, and a decent chunk of the chances it did create came from the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Sharks drove a huge percentage of their offense to the slot, where they scored all three of their goals. INDIVIDUAL IMPACT -Daniel Sprong was probably the Red Wings' best skater last night. He played just 11:59 but made the most of those minutes. Sprong scored, gave an assist, blocked a shot, and hit the net with all six of his shot attempts. He also finished second in the game with 0.84 individual xG and would've been first without Rasmussen's ENG. Individual xG Contributions, courtesy of MoneyPuck [https://thehockeynews.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MjAzMzcyOTMyMzg5NDE0NDc5/screenshot-2024-01-03-at-12226-pm.png] Individual xG Contributions, courtesy of MoneyPuck -Derek Lalonde noted last night that David Perron's line "pushed" and "drove" Detroit [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/news/were-fighting-for-our-lives-and-every-point-is-massive-right-now-red-wings-react-to-5-3-win-in-san-jose] to success on a night when the Red Wings clearly didn't have their best game. That line—with Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin—played 9:44 at five-on-five, earning a 0.214-0.112 edge by xG (a 65.7% share) and out-scoring their opponents 1-0 along the way. On the opposite end of that spectrum, the ostensible third line (which actually played the most of Detroit's forward lines at five-on-five at 10:15) of Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Joe Veleno struggled mightily. That trio earned just a 34.5% share of on-ice xG and was outscored 3-0. Meanwhile, the second line of Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane didn't exactly thrive either. You can see the vision of pairing DeBrincat and Kane with Compher: the former two can embrace their offensive dynamism, with Compher providing defensive coverage and forward thrust. However, at least on Tuesday night, that formula didn't work. In 7:44 at five-on-five, the line didn't create much offense (just 0.144 xG) but also gave up more than it created (0.341 xG against). There were no goals in either direction, but a 29.7% share of on-ice xG isn't a very persuasive effort. -It was also a difficult night for Shayne Gostisbehere and Ben Chiarot. That pair played 11:36 and suffered a good deal. They were on the ice for just 0.047 xG for compared to 0.633 xG against (just a 6.9% share), and they were outscored 0-2. Jake Walman and Moritz Seider were busier and, while still underwater, considerably better. In 15:02, they earned a 44.7% share of on-ice xG, outscoring San Jose 1-0 in those minutes. Meanwhile, in a more limited role, Olli Maatta and Justin Holl were excellent. They didn't score or conceded but enjoyed a 79.2% share of on-ice xG in 8:53. -Finally, it wasn't a banner night for Alex Lyon in net. He made 24 saves on 27 shots, conceding three goals on 1.929 xG for a -1.07 Goals Saved Above Expected. That's obviously not a brilliant performance, but as Lyon put it himself after the game, it "wasn't perfect tonight by any means, but never gonna apologize for a win." ALSO FROM THN DETROIT "We're Fighting for Our Lives, and Every Point is Massive Right Now": Red Wings React to 5-3 Win in San Jose [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/news/were-fighting-for-our-lives-and-every-point-is-massive-right-now-red-wings-react-to-5-3-win-in-san-jose] Red Wings WJC Update: Danielson, Canada Stunned; Augustine Backs Up as USA Rolls; Sandin Pellikka Scores OT Winner for Hosts Sweden [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/news/red-wings-wjc-update-danielson-canada-stunned-augustine-backs-up-as-usa-rolls-sandin-pellikka-scores-ot-winner-for-hosts-sweden] "Just a Little More Attention to Detail Would be Helpful": Compher, Chiarot, Lalonde React to 5-3 Loss to Bruins [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/news/just-a-little-more-attention-to-detail-would-be-helpful-compher-chiarot-lalonde-react-to-5-3-loss-to-bruins] A Second Period Disaster, Top Line Produces Offense but Struggles in Own End, Reimer Struggles Again: Red Wings-Wild Statistical Review [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/analysis/a-second-period-disaster-top-line-produces-offense-but-struggles-in-own-end-reimer-struggles-again-red-wings-wild-statistical-review] "Sometimes You Go Through Adversity, and Right Now, We're Going Through It": Kane, Reimer, Lalonde React to Red Wings' Loss in Minnesota [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/detroit-red-wings/news/sometimes-you-go-through-adversity-and-right-now-were-going-through-it-kane-reimer-lalonde-react-to-red-wings-loss-in-minnesota]
