Oilers Pre-Scout: Facing The Nashville Predators Is Like Looking In A Mirror

Finn Marceau

Oct 31, 2024, 11:00

Finn Marceau

Oct 31, 2024, 11:00

The Oilers and Predators share many similarities, with one glaring difference on special teams.

Edmonton Oilers. - Oilers Pre-Scout: Facing The Nashville Predators Is Like Looking In A Mirror

The Oilers continue their road trip tonight against a familiar foe.

Tonight marks the Oilers' first rematch of the season, as they visit the Nashville Predators for the second of three matchups between the two teams this year.

The two teams have weathered similarly difficult starts to the season. The Predators started off 0-5, including a 4-2 loss to the Oilers on October 17th. They did eventually show some signs of life, rattling off three consecutive wins against the Bruins, Blackhawks, and Blue Jackets, before falling to the Lightning in overtime in Steven Stamkos' return to Tampa Bay.

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Tonight's game is a meeting of the two unluckiest teams in the league, by MoneyPuck's reckoning. The Oilers have scored a remarkable 12.75 fewer goals than expected on the year, far and away the worst in the league, while Nashville places 31st with 7.72 goals below expected. Considering the wealth of shooting talent these two teams possess, that dreadful luck can't be expected to continue for long.

All five of Nashville's top forwards -- Ryan O'Reilly, Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault, and Gustav Nyquist -- boast expected goals shares of over 60%. Where the Predators have been undone -- apart from their poor finishing -- has been at the bottom of the lineup, where five players have xG%s under 41%.

That mirrors the Oilers' lineup, where the top dogs have driven play without getting commensurate results, and the bottom of the lineup has been a real drag. Add in the fact that these are the two oldest lineups in the league and the similarities are downright eerie.

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One area where Nashville has Edmonton beat is on the penalty kill. The Predators' PK has been humming along to the tune of 93.1%, having allowed only two goals on 29 chances. They're tied with Dallas for the league's best penalty kill.

At the other end of the scale lie the Oilers, owners of the league's worst unit at only 62.1%. Neither team's powerplay has played up to its potential thus far, so the special teams matchup could come down to which PK unit can lock it down.

However, the Oilers have history on their side, and an ace up their sleeve. They've won eight of the past ten matchups between these two teams going back to 2020-21, thanks in large part to the dominance of Leon Draisaitl. He completely owns the Predators, picking up 24 points (11G, 13A) in those ten games.

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He's the Oilers' best player with Connor McDavid out, and he'll be counted on heavily to continue his dominance of the Predators.

These next few weeks without McDavid might well be the most important stretch of the Oilers' season, and it's vital that they keep themselves afloat without their best player. A rematch with one of the few teams they've beaten this season and have completely dominated in recent years could be just what the doctor ordered after Monday's crushing loss.

The puck drops at Bridgestone Arena at 6:00 PM, Mountain Time.

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