41-27-14, 96
points (4th Pacific, 15th overall)
2.68 GF/GP, 29th; 2.88 GA/GP, 15th
21.0 PP%, 19th; 76.1 PK%, 25th
Key losses: G Dan Vladar
Key additions: G Ivan Prosvetov
Expected lineup:
Jonathan
Huberdeau – Nazem Kadri – Connor Zary
Blake Coleman – Mikael Backlund – Matt Coronato
Yegor Sharangovich – Morgan Frost – Joel Farabee
Ryan Lomberg – Martin Pospisil – Adam Klapka
Kevin Bahl
– Rasmus Andersson
Mac Weegar – Daniil Miromanov
Jake Bean – Brayden Pachal
Dustin Wolf – Ivan Prosvetov
PP1:
Huberdeau – Kadri – Coronato – Frost – Weegar
PP2: Sharangovich – Backlund – Coleman – Farabee – Andersson
5-on-5:
Even with a resurgent season from Jonathan Huberdeau, a career-high 35 goals from Nazem Kadri and a breakout season from Matt Coronato, the Flames offense was fourth-last in goals for per game and third-last in goals for at 5-on-5. Generating offensive chances was difficult, and even more difficult was burying those chances.
The Flames shot just 7.28 per cent at 5-on-5 per naturalstattrick.com, the second-lowest mark in the league. This is a team without an elite offensive player to build around, and in an era with so much talent, it’s hard for teams to compete if they don’t have a marquee player or exceptional depth.
The Flames remained in a holding pattern for much of last season due to a surprisingly good campaign where they were in contention for a playoff spot – they tied the Blues in points for the last spot but had fewer wins – and the lack of activity at the draft and free agency implies GM Craig Conroy’s approach will stay the same. That’s not good for fantasy.
That is to say, the Flames offense likely won’t improve much unless Coronato, Frost, Farabee and Connor Zary take a big leap forward. It’s more likely they’ll be worse if Conroy chooses to trade veterans for futures. Among those are Rasmus Andersson, who provided 11 goals and the most obvious trade candidate, and also Kadri, whose 35-goal season upped his trade value, and centers are still very coveted assets.
THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects Kadri to be the leading scorer with 70 points, but if he’s traded, the Flames’ overall offensive ceiling dips, and Huberdeau’s fantasy value will likely take the biggest hit. Do not be surprised if they’re bottom-five in generating offense yet again. They’re just not an ideal team to mine for fantasy options, and banking on breakout seasons from any of their younger players – excluding Coronato – still presents limited upside.
The Flames’ key to success will be to rely on their defense, led by Mac Weegar, and their sublime goaltending with Dustin Wolf in net.
Power Play:
It’s impossible to have good special teams without a marquee offensive player. The Flames rely on Kadri and Huberdeau to generate offense but neither are top-tier (or even second-tier) offensive players, and on most other teams will not play higher than the second line. Without even an average power play, there’s little chance the Flames’ top players can elevate their production to a point-per-game level.
Coronato is the key player if they want to improve on the power play; he will surely score more than last season’s five PPG, and 12 of his 23 assists were with the man advantage. He trailed only Kadri and Huberdeau in PPG, but mostly because he played fewer minutes and Kadri took a high volume of their shots. During a six-game stretch in late October, the Flames went six games without a PPG, going 0-for-18 with a minus-1 goal differential after allowing a shorthanded goal.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.