The Stars are the epitome of so-close-yet-so-far; three straight conference final appearances and three losses, and a team with elite talent at every position that just can’t seem to overcome that hump. Here’s hoping the coaching change provides that spark with Glen Gulutzan back in the fold, stepping into a head coaching role for the first time in seven seasons.
There are hints Gulutzan can squeeze more out of his roster; that 2011-12 Stars team he led to 42 wins didn’t feature elite talent – Loui Eriksson was their top scorer – and the 2016-17 Flames he led to 45 wins had a very young roster – Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett were all 23 or under. He’ll also bring new ideas to a Stars power play that was much worse than expected though they still finished with a top-five overall offense in spite of it.
Precious depth was lost over the summer with Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund and Evgenii Dadonov leaving, but the Stars have an elite player in Mikko Rantanen for the full season and still possess so much depth they’re slated to play Wyatt Johnston on the third line.
The Stars offer a bevy of fantasy options and the THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide has projected the Stars to have five players score at least 65 points. There might be one more if Tyler Seguin can stay healthy, and I also wouldn’t count out a significantly improved season from Mavrik Bourque.
GM Jim Nill is very aggressive when it comes to making moves, but I fail to see another big fish out there that will be accretive to their current roster without the Stars having to give up anything significant. They were quiet during the off-season, as they should be, because there isn’t much to do for a roster that has been as successful as it can be without winning the whole thing. Sometimes, a coaching change does the trick.
The pieces are all there, and from a fantasy perspective the big prizes are Rantanen, Thomas Harley and Jake Oettinger. (I told you they had elite talent at every position). Rantanen is the most intriguing one; he scored 18 points in 20 games during the season and exploded in the late stages of the Avs series and through the Jets series, but scored just three assists in five games against the Oilers.
There is a tax on a deeper team; Rantanen is highly unlikely to get more minutes than he did with the Avs and he’s no longer playing with arguably the top fantasy player in Nathan MacKinnon, but Rantanen’s not going to get taxed so hard he falls out of the first round of any drafts. He may drop a few spots, but that’s also because there’s so much talent in the league right now there’s a strong case to be made for several other players in the same tier.
Rantanen’s presence actually should elevate the fantasy production of the Stars’ other players, including Jason Robertson, who has been incredibly efficient with back-to-back 80-point seasons despite declining shot volume and minutes. If healthy, Roope Hintz can easily be another 80-point player.
It’s interesting to note the Stars were very much quality over quantity when it came to generating offense. They were middle-of-the-pack in shots but excellent in getting high-danger chances and converting them. If they can increase their shot volume by a little bit – Gulutzan and the Oilers ranked first in shots per game last season – it will move offensive ceiling of the entire team further upwards.
I think the biggest question heading into this fantasy season is what the Stars do with Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley. There’s no debate in my mind – Harley is the better option for creating offense. Therefore, he’s the more logical choice to quarterback PP1 and the one with the higher fantasy value. This will also free up Heiskanen to be used in more matchup roles.
The Stars had stubbornly stuck with Heiskanen in the past but, in the playoffs, they really started to turn to Harley. Should that trend continue, Harley will be the one to target in fantasy drafts, and it wouldn’t be a reach to see him as one of the top-10 defensemen off the board. As it stands, he’s only being taken seven picks higher than Heiskanen according to Yahoo’s ADP.
Prediction:
Rantanen fails to score 100 points but it doesn’t matter because the Stars finish the season with the league’s best offense thanks to elite talent, a balanced lineup and an improved power play. They match the cap-era record of having five players – Rantanen, Robertson, Hintz, Johnston and Duchene – score at least 70 points in a single season with Harley setting a new career high with at least 60 points.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.