48-29-5, 101
points (3rd Pacific, 9th overall)
3.16 GF/GP, 11th; 2.87 GA/GP, 14th
23.7 PP%, 12th; 78.2 PK%, 16th
Key losses: LW/RW Viktor Arvidsson, LW Evander Kane, RW Connor Brown, RW Corey Perry, D John Klingberg
Key additions: LW/RW Andrew Mangiapane, LW Isaac Howard, RW David Tomasek
Expected lineup:
Ryan
Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman
Vasily Podkolzin – Leon Draisaitl – Andrew Mangiapane
Isaac Howard – Adam Henrique – Trent Frederic
Mattias Janmark – Curtis Lazar – Kasperi Kapanen
Mattias
Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse – Jake Walman
Brett Kulak – Ty Emberson
Stuart Skinner – Calvin Pickard
PP1: Draisaitl
– McDavid – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Bouchard
PP2: What second unit?
5-on-5:
We know what Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl bring. McDavid is an exceptional scorer, a truly generational talent, and for that reason alone is the world’s top-ranked player in fantasy.
Where McDavid’s fantasy value may dip (a little bit) is when categories such as shots carry significant fantasy value; a player with a slightly lower point ceiling but much higher shot volume (ie. Nathan MacKinnon) may overtake McDavid for the top spot. Draisaitl is easily a top-five fantasy player, perhaps not at MacKinnon or McDavid’s level, but certainly one of the best bets for a 50-goal, 100-plus points season. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide project both players to score at least 110 points this season.
When neither McDavid (56.85 CF%) nor Draisaitl (53.63 CF%) are on the ice (66.31 CF% together), the Oilers’ possession metrics plummet to barely above league average (50.30 CF%). This is a huge problem; while it’s of little consequence in fantasy hockey where individual production is king, it does mean fantasy values for their depth players are very dependent on who gets to play with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. The Oilers overhauled their wingers over the summer, but they feel more cosmetic rather than representing a philosophical change.
The Oilers’ Cup window is right now – McDavid’s contract status notwithstanding – but the Oilers have a mixed bag of wingers. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman (who’s expected to miss the start of the season) might’ve already had their best seasons already, and the newcomers – Matthew Savoie, Isaac Howard and David Tomasek – have practically zero NHL experience. It’s anyone’s guess which of the three will have the most fantasy value.
Defensively, disregarding Darnell Nurse’s ridiculous contract, the bigger source of concern is Mattias Ekholm. He’s an outstanding two-way defenseman who does everything well, but he is 35 years old and played just seven games in the playoffs. The number of 35-year-old defensemen who can play 22 minutes a night in the toughest situations at a high level of effectiveness is really short.
There were only four such defensemen last season: Drew Doughty, John Carlson, Kris Letang and Alex Pietrangelo. In all four cases, their play has started to decline noticeably – injuries play a big role – and you could argue the same for Roman Josi and Erik Karlsson, both of whom turned 35 over the summer. There were spurts where they looked amazing – Karlsson at 4 Nations and Doughty in his bid to make Team Canada – but the overall trend is the same. Father Time is undefeated.
Losing Ekholm to injury or watching his game decline can only exacerbate the Oilers’ defensive problems. The offense is good enough to bail them out, and it’s arguably a good thing for their forwards’ fantasy values, but defending poorly can drag the whole team down. Lower shot generation, less power play ice time and negative plus-minus ratings are some ways where it can adversely affective their fantasy value. This is not a powerhouse team and the Pacific Division could be tough, making the Oilers’ margin of error very small.
Power Play:
The Oilers’ top unit is so good they often don’t need a second unit. Glen Gulutzan was hired by the Stars but that should have very minimal impact on their effectiveness. As long as McDavid and Draisaitl are on the power play, it would be absolutely shocking if the Oilers didn’t have a good power play.
We can nitpick and point out the Oilers finished 12th in power play efficiency, but the difference is pretty thin between the top teams. Only two teams (Golden Knights and Blackhawks) were more efficient on the power play than the Oilers despite receiving fewer power play opportunities. The Oilers ranked 23rd overall in both penalties drawn and power play opportunities.
Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman (when he returns) and Evan Bouchard are the big beneficiaries here. While Hyman is out, look for the Oilers to try a bunch of different players to see what works best. Ideally, Hyman’s replacement would be a right-hand shot, which makes me think Savoie will get a look, and also Tomasek if they want someone bigger, stronger and probably better in front of the net. Andrew Mangiapane, Podkolzin and Howard are also options, but all are left-hand shots. I can see a flavor-of-the-week type of approach, which will force fantasy managers to be quick on the waiver wire.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.