Breakout Candidate: Quinton Byfield, C/LW
This feels like the season where Byfield takes over. He’s scored 20 goals and 50 points in consecutive seasons, saw a significant increase in ice time last season, and he’s ready to be a full-time center. (Having C and LW eligibility is a huge bonus). If the Kings follow last season’s blueprint, they might face a fifth straight early playoff exit. Under new management, why not give the keys to the heir apparent and see how he fares? A point-per-game season is not out of the question for Byfield, though he will need the requisite ice time on the power play to do so. He also needs to shoot the puck more often and, as a quick aside, there’s a tiny concern that perhaps he’s not a high-end finisher with a very pedestrian 11.6 S% so far in his career.
Should Byfield manage to score at least 30 goals, 200 shots and 100 hits this season, he’ll join an exclusive club that featured only teammate Adrian Kempe, Filip Forsberg and Alex Ovechkin last season, giving him big value in banger leagues. Byfield finished 23-157-80 in 81 games last season, so those numbers are certainly very attainable.
Buy Low Candidate: Andrei Kuzmenko, LW/RW
Kuzmenko showed near instant-chemistry with Anze Kopitar and Kempe, forming the Kings’ AK3 top line. Kuzmenko rode a hot hand en route to a 74-point season with the Canucks in his first NHL season, and I suspect he’ll be closer to that than the 20 points he scored in 44 games for the Flames and Flyers. Playing time and shooting percentage will be a big factor here; he’s not a high-volume shooter because he tends to go for highlight-reel quality rather than quantity, but it’s worth noting that his career IPP rate is pretty high. That means that when he’s on the ice, a lot of the scoring plays run through him. A full season riding shotgun with Kopitar and Kempe could really help really boost his point totals.
I think Kuzmenko is flying under the radar and could be a good source of points, provided he sticks on that top line and on the top power play unit. He is prone to periods where he gets benched, however, due to his woeful defensive play, and that’s the biggest risk. He’s one of five Kings forwards projected to score at least 40 points, according to the THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide.
Riser: Brandt Clarke, D
I hesitate to name Clarke as the breakout candidate because he’ll have to find his way onto PP1 and fend off Drew Doughty for that role. I’m not convinced he will, at least for an entire season, and the Kings power play was so bad except for moments when they played five forwards together. Is that something they stick to this season?
Regardless, there’s no question Clarke is the future of their defense and the path to more minutes is clearer after trading Jordan Spence. For what it’s worth, Clarke is projected to be the Kings’ top scoring defenseman with 42 points, edging Doughty by three.
Faller: Anze Kopitar, C
If Byfield rises then Kopitar likely takes a backseat. I think he’s a model of consistency and extraordinarily effective, but his age and declining minutes are both good reasons to believe Kopitar’s fantasy value is starting to slip. He’s still very useful as a depth player, especially in leagues that count faceoffs – he’s won at least 800 in four straight seasons – but we’ll likely see his point totals fall into the 50’s.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.