It all starts and ends with Kirill Kaprizov, who’s one of the best players in the league. He’s in a contract year, and had he managed to stay healthy last season, he would’ve had a really good chance to become just the sixth player in the cap era to score at least 40 goals in four straight seasons, joining Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews and Ilya Kovalchuk. Kaprizov is the rare winger you can build an entire offense around, and THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects him to score 109 points.
The Wild are not a one-man team, however, because Matt Boldy is on the verge of becoming a superstar. If he stays on Kaprizov’s line all season, or even for most of it, he’s a 30-goal, 300-shot threat, and he’s good enough to carry a line on his own. His individual point percentage at 5-on-5 is above 70 percent for his career, and the majority of his linemates, including Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson and Marcus Foligno, all see their possession numbers dip when they’re not playing with him. The massive shot volume Boldy provides – he ranked seventh in the league – easily makes him a worthwhile pick in the top five rounds.
The Wild are expected to open camp with Boldy on a separate line from Kaprizov, playing with Marco Rossi at center and Vladimir Tarasenko on the opposite wing. While I think Rossi is the ideal playmaking center to play with a scoring winger such as Boldy, I'm less convinced Tarasenko can play a second-line role entering his age-34 season and coming off a bad year.
Joel Eriksson Ek is worth mentioning as a potential banger league stud. He missed a ton of games last season but offers 60-point, 200-shot, 150-hit and 700-face-off-win upside. That’s rare and ideally the kind of multi-category contribution you’re looking for at a center that’s pretty deep. Never mind hitting that milestone; there’s only a handful of players who are even capable of coming close, namely Vincent Trocheck and J.T. Miller.
The rest of the roster can be a mixed bag, but if we’re betting on potential, then it’s Rossi, who has 60-point upside if he can stick as their 2C. The sudden drop to the fourth line in the playoffs is concerning; his lack of physical play and defensive warts were probably magnified, but I fail to see a better fit on their second line. Mats Zuccarello is also a great depth option and I’m done counting him out based on his age until his stats prove otherwise.
There are two rookies worth mentioning, and both were 2022 first-round picks. Swedish left winger Liam Ohgren, who no longer qualifies for the Calder but has yet to play a full NHL season, and Russian right winger Danila Yurov, who already has five years of KHL experience. Ohgren has the higher offensive ceiling, but Yurov might have the slight edge because he has more pro experience and plays a more rounded two-way game. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects Yurov to score 60 points, fourth-highest on the team.
On defense, it’s better if fantasy managers reach for Zeev Buium, the smooth-skating rookie who’s expected to quarterback PP1, rather than going for Brock Faber or Jared Spurgeon. Faber, in particular, is an excellent defender in real life but carries little fantasy value except for some modest points and blocked shots. I think Faber’s 47-point rookie season was a bit of an anomaly and skewed his fantasy value (and reputation), and his PP TOI will be reduced playing behind Buium.
It’s difficult to gauge Filip Gustavsson’s fantasy value because he’s either been really good or really bad. After an outstanding debut in 2022-23 with a .931 SP and a quality start percentage of .730, his play dipped severely the following season to .899 SP and .419. Last season, he bounced back strong with a .914 SP and .690, making him one of the best value picks among goalies. He won a career-high 31 games and even managed to score a goal. (This is the time where I argue goalie goals should be worth 10 goals in fantasy).
How does he fare this season? Remember, even the Wild were unconvinced with Gustavsson, and reportedly put him on the trade market after the 2023-24 season. One thing we do know for sure is that Gustavsson will get the bulk of the starts ahead of rookie Jesper Wallstedt, and that’s a really good thing for leagues that count saves. Wallstedt is coming off an awful season in the AHL with a .879 SP and 3.59 GAA, and there’s a strong argument that had Marc-Andre Fleury not retired, Wallstedt was going back to the minors for at least one more season.
The big question will be in quality. I think Gustavsson can be an excellent goalie, but thus far his track record suggests we should still err on the side of caution. Goaltending in fantasy is fraught with problems, but generally speaking, I’m still optimistic about Gustavsson. Wallstedt may be the goalie of the future, but his appearances so far have not been particularly inspiring, and will firmly be entrenched as Gustavsson’s backup this coming season barring an injury.
Prediction:
Kaprizov easily finishes top five in league scoring with at least 40 goals and 100 points, while Boldy cranks out a 30-goal, 300-shot season and finishes with almost 90 points. They are undoubtedly the Wild’s best options in fantasy, and Eriksson Ek remains a banger league stud should he stay healthy.
Buium challenges for the Calder and finds his way onto the majority of fantasy rosters due to his power play usage. With improved play at 5-on-5 and on the power play, mostly due to Kaprizov staying healthy.
The Wild make the playoffs but once again dip out early. This is still a solid team that's finding its legs with their young core, but I think the biggest question all season will be if it's good enough to convince Kaprizov to stay. Whether or not he re-signs will ultimately decide if this Wild season was a bust or not.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.