45-30-7, 97
points (4th Central, 13th overall)
2.74 GF/GP, 25th; 2.88 GA/GP, 16th
20.9 PP%, 20th; 72.4 PK%, 30th
Key losses: C Frederick Gaudreau, LW/RW Gustav Nyquist, G Marc-Andre Fleury
Key additions: LW/RW Vladimir Tarasenko, C Nico Sturm
Expected lineup:
Kirill
Kaprizov – Joel Eriksson Ek – Mats Zuccarello
Matt Boldy – Marco Rossi – Vladimir Tarasenko
Marcus Foligno – Ryan Hartman – Marcus Johansson
Yakov Trenin – Marco Sturm – Danila Yurov
Jonas
Brodin – Brock Faber
Jake Middleton – Jared Spurgeon
Zeev Buium – Zach Bogosian
Filip Gustavsson – Jesper Wallstedt
PP1:
Kaprizov – Eriksson Ek – Boldy – Zuccarello – Buium
PP2: Johansson – Rossi – Hartman – Tarasenko – Spurgeon
5-on-5:
It’s imperative the Wild play Marco Rossi as their No. 2 center otherwise they’re a one-line team. It is absolutely not a coincidence the Wild offense suffered their worst offensive output in five seasons with Kirill Kaprizov limited to just 41 games. He was on his way to a fourth straight 40-goal season, something only five players – Leon Draisaitl, Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Ovechkin – have accomplished in the cap era, and he’ll be worth every penny the Wild promise to give him. (Whether or not Kaprizov is willing to re-sign is another story).
The Wild’s top line is the least of their worries save for Joel Eriksson Ek’s health. Along with the supremely underrated Matt Boldy, the trio had an outrageous 64.77 CF% in 28 games together during the regular season and 53.89 CF% in a playoff series when the rest of the team was getting caved in. Boldy and Kaprizov accounted for 10 of their 19 total goals.
If the Wild don’t want to depend on one line, then they’ll have to split up Kaprizov and Boldy, and the best playmaking center for either of them not named Eriksson Ek is Rossi. That Rossi’s ice time dipped all the way to fourth-line minutes in the playoffs was not a good sign, but the contract stalemate is over and, presumably, the Wild are committed to him as a top-six center for the next three seasons – he’s being paid like one, after all – despite being in the trade rumor mill all summer.
I like Rossi’s skill set and think he can be a very good playmaking 2C. But if the Wild stack Kaprizov-Boldy, that doesn’t leave Rossi with a lot to play with other than the ageless wonder Mats Zuccarello. Marcus Johansson will be 35 years old in October, Vladimir Tarasenko will be 34 in December, and neither are reliable second-line scorers at this stage of their careers. Danila Yurov and Liam Ohgren, both 2022 first-round picks, will need to step up, and it's like that only one (or neither) make the opening night squad.
That's probably why the Wild may start camp with Kaprizov and Boldy on separate lines, with Rossi centering Boldy on his left and Tarasenko on his right. We shall see how that line fares, especially since Boldy can carry his own line, and he's no less a passenger than Kaprizov himself when they play together.
It’s worth noting THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects Yurov to score 60 points, which would put him in consideration for the Calder while Rossi is projected to score just 50 points, 10 fewer than last season.
Don’t mistake the lack of scoring talent for lack of depth, which the Wild definitely do have. But figuring out where their secondary scoring will come from after Kaprizov and Boldy could be an issue all season.
The pressure to create offense from their role players may be alleviated by a blue line that now features a really talented offensive defenseman: Zeev Buium. It’s something the Wild have really lacked throughout their franchise history, and the raw talent and pedigree are there, having won the gold medal at the U18 and U20 World Juniors, the World Championships and the NCAA championship. A healthy Jared Spurgeon and a developing David Jiricek should also help the Wild’s transition attack.
Power Play:
With Buium at the point – it’d be pretty shocking if the Wild don’t throw him on PP1 to start – and Kaprizov in the lineup, there’s almost no chance they finish as low as 20th again. They were league average in generating shots and expected goals but not particularly good at converting those chances, particularly in high-danger areas. While Buium doesn’t have a big point shot, he’s excellent at creating space and finding passing lanes.The Wild’s second unit looks pretty good on paper, but I expect them to lean on their top unit a lot.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.