If there’s one thing the Mammoth can do, it’s scoring. All six of their top scorers from the previous season have returned and they’re all still going to improve; Nick Schmaltz is the ‘elder statesman’ at age 29, and they added a 68-point scorer in JJ Peterka from the Sabres.
This is a supremely young and talented group, built for the current NHL that prizes speed and skill, but it’s not without its weaknesses. While there’s little doubt they will bounce back at 5-on-5 and score more goals than last season after a curiously low shooting percentage and poor puck luck, this is still a group that lacks size and strength in the top six. (This is why acquiring Peterka for the dependable Michael Kesselring was a little curious, as it simply adds to what the Mammoth already have – perimeter scoring – in spades).
This was very apparent on the power play where Utah was not good at generating chances from the slot and often relied on scoring plays on the half-wall because they lack a reliable net-front presence. At even strength, their rush offense is dangerous, but they lack a net driver.
They’re built quite traditionally with two very good scoring lines and a bottom six that has size and plays a physical style, and it’s up to head coach Andre Tourigny to find a balance that works on a consistent basis.
This isn’t as much of a concern in the regular season as the playoffs, and so in fantasy I’m not quite as worried about their production. There will be nights, however, where they may struggle against a more physical defense. Utah had zero wins in seven games against the Kings, Leafs, Devils, and Panthers, all of whom have either big defensemen or good depth, and finished in the top-10 in fewest goals against per game.
I think Clayton Keller will lead this group again with 90-point potential, but I can see as many as four other players scoring at least 60 points: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Nick Schmaltz and JJ Peterka.
Barrett Hayton has an outside shot and it’s mostly because he’s slated to be the top center between Keller and Schmaltz. The trio have played together for quite some time and produced good results. It’s interesting that Keller and Cooley haven’t produced results nearly as good as Keller and Hayton, both raw stats and underlying metrics, and the lack of chemistry is why I think Cooley will continue to center a different line with Guenther on his wing.
This gives Utah two very good scoring lines, but not being able to stack one could be the difference between 40 goals and 30 goals for Guenther, and 90-plus points and 90 points for Keller. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects 30 goals for Guenther and 87 points for Keller.
On defense, Mikhail Sergachev has a pretty firm grip on the top PP and EV roles. He’s an all-round defenseman who will get a big boost in points from special teams. In his best seasons, both with the Lightning and Utah, he had at least 20 power-play assists. With strong peripherals in blocks and hits, he’s one of the more underrated top-25 defensemen.
Goaltending could make or break the season. With Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek as their tandem and Connor Ingram demoted to the AHL while searching for a new home, the Mammoth are putting a massive burden on Vejmelka’s shoulders. He’s coming off a strong season, but his play can be streaky and inconsistent, and it remains to be seen how he’ll respond with another 50-start workload.
Vejmelka will have value for volume categories such as saves, and I don’t think Vanecek is a threat to steal much playing time. Depending on what happens with Ingram, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him back in a Utah uniform again, but this is Vejmelka’s net. Utah’s defense will miss Michael Kesselring, but it has enough depth to be serviceable, though I think they still lack a shutdown pair or defender. They’re going to allow a lot of shots and goals and rely on their offense to win.
Prediction:
The Mammoth improve their offense but without a stalwart defense or consistently good goaltending, they again finish just outside the playoff picture. Their offense becomes a formidable group offering plenty of options with Guenther becoming the first player in franchise history in the cap era to score 40 goals and Hayton sets career highs as their season-long No. 1 pivot centering Keller and Schmaltz.
There will be games where the Mammoth offense blow games wide open but there will be games where they get stifled when their skilled players can’t get anything going or when the high-scoring areas of the ice are closed off to them.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.