It would be quite surprising if the Jets are as good as they were last season. They were frighteningly efficient with their goal scoring despite generating chances at a slightly above-average level and got some puck luck on their side. On the other hand, with Connor Hellebuyck in net, it’s their one trump card because he’s most certainly the best goalie in the league right now.
It’s just hard to repeat as Presidents’ Trophy champions, since only two teams have done so in the cap era: the Canucks in 2011 and 2012, and the Capitals in 2016 and 2017. After a second-round exit against the Stars, perhaps the Jets’ approach will change this season. I don’t put much stock in the Presidents’ Trophy curse – only twice has the regular season champion also won the Cup in the same season in the cap era – but there’s something to be said about conserving your best and peaking in June rather than April.
It did seem like they ran out of a little steam, scoring two goals or less in four of their six playoff games against the Stars after ranking fourth in the league with 3.35 goals per game during the season. It didn’t help that injuries forced several key players to miss games, and Hellebuyck was awful for his standards. It’s a good thing that only the regular season counts in fantasy hockey, and Hellebuyck’s infamous playoff meltdowns do not factor into his fantasy value.
On offense Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor form a fantastic combo, but don’t underestimate Gabe Vilardi’s finishing ability. Since joining the Jets, Vilardi’s 19.8 shooting percentage paces the team, just edging Scheifele’s 19.1 percent and well ahead of Connor’s 15.4 percent. An efficient top line will be one of the Jets’ keys to success in 2025-26.
Connor is a fantasy stud to his Rocket Richard potential, a high-volume shooter with the ability to score 50 goals one day. Scheifele is great for points, though he can be a bit unpredictable because his goal-scoring spikes in certain years, and he’s an astonishingly good finisher for a player known more for his playmaking. Both are worth taking in the early rounds in fantasy.
After the top line, however, I’m a little skeptical how the Jets plan to be an elite team again. Per NHL EDGE, they were one of the fastest teams in the league in both top speed and distance skated, meaning they were quick and all over the ice at all times.
But they did lose Nikolaj Ehlers and Brandon Tanev in the off-season, replacing them with the much slower Gustav Nyquist and Tanner Pearson. With Jonathan Toews as their No. 2 center, who’s making a comeback after a two-year absence, it remains to be seen if they can be nearly as effective as their second line from the previous season with Ehlers, Cole Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov. Perhaps Toews can be an improvement over Namestnikov, but he’s a mystery box at this moment.
One of the Jets’ biggest strengths last season was their chemistry, and their top three lines rarely changed. Their second line will look very different this season, and their third line only has Nino Niederreiter returning with Adam Lowry nursing an injury and expected to miss a chunk of the season, and Mason Appleton now with the Red Wings.
On defense, Josh Morrissey has really developed into a bona fide offensive defenseman and ranks easily among the top-10 defensemen in fantasy. His defensive game should not be overlooked and they will return everyone from their roster last season, but losing the emerging Dylan Samberg due to a broken wrist is potentially a big blow.
Can the Jets be more than the sum of their parts again? No doubt they’ll need some luck to do so, as they had last season, but it’s very fickle to predict. Some of the things that made them really good last season, including Ehlers’ scoring pace and team speed, doesn’t seem to have been adequately replaced.
Could they turn to prospects Nikita Chibrikov or Brad Lambert, both of whom have been given very few chances to prove themselves? This is an older team; Toews is 37, Nyquist is 36 and all their returning key players save for Connor (28), Vilardi (26) and Perfetti (23) are in their 30’s.
Prediction:
The Jets will make the playoffs as the second seed in the Central, ceding the division title to the Stars. They may represent Canada’s best chance to bring the Cup back north of the border, but will likely fail to do so unless Hellebuyck can translate his sublime player in the regular season to the playoffs.
The Jets will depend heavily on their top line, Morrissey and Hellebuyck, but get mixed results from the rest of their roster. Scoring depth is a challenge as Perfetti is tasked to drive the second line by himself, and the third pairing might have trouble moving the puck for a team that relies on speed.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.