The Vancouver Canucks make a blockbuster trade acquiring Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames for a package including Andrei Kuzmenko as they begin their push to win the Stanley Cup. How does this impact their fantasy values?
Elias Lindholm was exactly what the Canucks needed -- a reliable, right-handed, two-way center.
They had given up plenty to get Lindholm: top-six scoring winger Andrei Kuzmenko, who had struggled under Rick Tocchet, prospects Joni Jurmo and Hunter Brzustewicz, who is currently OHL Kitchener's top scorer, and two draft picks to the rival Flames.
It's not that the Canucks are short on centers; Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller are both centers, and so are Teddy Blueger, Pius Suter and Nils Åman.
But you can never really have enough good centers, and it's easier for a center to move to the wing than vice versa. The addition of Lindholm gives the Canucks the opportunity to ice a much more balanced lineup.
Needless to say, Lindholm's offensive ceiling just got higher moving from a very average to an elite scoring team, especially if he's the fourth forward on their top power play unit. His fantasy value will depend on where he slots into the lineup, and we got a hint when GM Jim Rutherford said on local radio in Vancouver that Tocchet is pretty keen on playing Pettersson with Lindholm.
It makes a lot of sense; they were teammates on Team Sweden at the 2019 World Championships, they're two of the team's best two-way players and the lefty-righty combo allows them to take faceoffs on their strong side all the time.
It's worth noting Rutherford was the GM of the Hurricanes when they drafted Lindholm fifth overall in 2013, so they have extensive knowledge of what kind of player he is.
If that's the case, the Canucks lineup would probably look like this:
Pius Suter - J.T. Miller - Brock Boeser
Elias Pettersson - Elias Lindholm - Ilya Mikheyev
Dakota Joshua - Teddy Blueger - Conor Garland
Nils Höglander - Nils Åman - Sam Lafferty
Suter retains some of his fantasy value by continuing to play on the top line. He entered the break on a three-game points streak with six points since joining Miller and Boeser, and remains a strong streaming option.
However, note that Suter could be bumped off the top power play by Lindholm, and that certainly hurts since two of his six points were scored with the man advantage.
Mikheyev's fantasy value would also rise by virtue of playing with two proven scorers. We've seen plenty of third wheels on scoring lines provide surplus fantasy value, such as the Oilers' Warren Foegele, even when scoring isn't their best skill. Keep an eye on Mikheyev; if he starts scoring consistently, he's going to be a very good streaming option and perhaps even worth holding.
The other option is to keep the 'Lotto Line' together. If that's the case, the top six would look like this:
Elias Pettersson - J.T. Miller - Brock Boeser
Pius Suter - Elias Lindholm - Ilya Mikheyev
The vaunted 'Lotto Line' has 73.3 Goals % and generates a league-best 6.02 goals per 60 minutes, per moneypuck.com.
Even Tocchet admitted that it's difficult to break those guys up, and they're also a big reason why the Canucks have a top-10 power play.
Pettersson and Miller both rank in the top-10 in league scoring, while Boeser has bounced back from a few injury-plagued seasons to hit the 30-goal milestone for the first time in his career.
With Lindholm centering L2, it allows the Canucks to have an elite scoring line full-time and a hard matchup line.
Suter and Mikheyev aren't the best finishers, which doesn't give Lindholm the same fantasy boost as playing with Pettersson, but simply being on the ice with a team that's better at generating scoring chances, and playing PP1, should at least help Lindholm maintain his current scoring pace.
As for Kuzmenko, though he's clearly lost some confidence and moving to a lesser team, his fantasy value has gone up.
This is because he's expected to play top-six minutes and the power play regularly, rather than being benched or sitting out as a healthy scratch as he was earlier in the season.
The Flames don't have enough talent not to play Kuzmenko in their top six, though he may not start on the top two lines. It'll be interesting to also see if Kuzmenko can mesh with Jonathan Huberdeau. Both usually play the left wing, but Kuzmenko is the only other right-hand shot among the Flames' forwards asides from Walker Duehr, who's a depth player.
If Huberdeau and Kuzmenko can play on their off-wings, it presents some one-timer opportunities. Playing Kuzmenko on the right wing means both players will be playing on their strong side, which has its own advantages.
Kuzmenko only has 63 shots on goal this season, but note 30 of them have come in high-danger areas, putting him in the 71st percentile, per NHL EDGE. It means that even though Kuzmenko is a low-volume shooter, he's still well above league average in total scoring chances in the prime scoring areas. With more ice time, the green light to shoot and Huberdeau setting him up, Kuzmenko might see a spike in his offensive production.
Obviously, that will depend on how the Flames' lines will shake out, and there's a ton of moving pieces. Without Lindholm, and with Huberdeau and Yegor Sharangovich now playing on separate lines despite spending over 150 minutes together, it's tough to say what their lines will look like.
The Flames are short on centers, and it may force them to keep playing Sharangovich at center or move Connor Zary to the middle.
It's almost a certainty that Ryan Huska will keep juggling and moving players around to see what works, and don't rule out any further trades by the Flames, either.
We shall have to see what the Flames come up with following the break, but here's my best guess based on their most recent lines:
Andrew Mangiapane - Mikael Backlund - Blake Coleman
Jonathan Huberdeau - Nazem Kadri - Connor Zary
Andrei Kuzmenko - Yegor Sharangovich - Matt Coronato
Martin Pospisil - Cole Schwindt - Walker Duehr
Their five-man power play first unit will likely consist of Kadri, Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Kuzmenko and Andersson, and a second unit with Backlund, Coleman, Mangiapane (or Coronato), Zary and Weegar.