After switching agents, can Vladimir Tarasenko cash in next summer after signing a one-year deal with the Ottawa Senators?
It had been rumoured, but Vladimir Tarasenko finally came off the free agent board, signing a one-year, $5-million deal with the Senators.
It was a whirlwind summer for Tarasenko, who switched agents midway through the summer and had more lucrative offers on the table.
Signing a one-year deal rather than the four-year deal that the Sens had offered earlier in the summer works out for both sides. For the Sens, the risk is much lower for signing a scoring winger who will turn 32 in December. For Tarasenko, this is a chance to cash in on a much more lucrative deal next summer when the cap is expected to increase. It’s a similar bet that other players, such as Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi with the Leafs, have made on themselves.
The addition of Tarasenko adds to a crowded top six for the Senators, and it’s worth considering if signing with the Sens provides any additional fantasy value. Tarasenko’s stint with the Rangers was underwhelming; he played fewer minutes on a stacked roster and saw his point-per-game average drop slightly (0.68 P/GP from 0.76 P/GP), and the Rangers’ much-anticipated playoff run fizzled in the first round.
It was tough to find the requisite ice time to satisfy everyone and play as a cohesive group. Tarasenko averaged just 2.13 shots per game with the Rangers, his lowest since his rookie season. There were many mouths to feed, but it's also a continuing trend of declining shot volume over the past few seasons for the Russian sniper.
Tarasenko faces a similar situation with the Sens' forwards, though they’ll have the benefit of having training camp and the regular season to figure things out. We shall see how the lines shake out, but my projected lineup looks like this:
Brady Tkachuk – Tim Stützle – Claude Giroux
Dominik Kubalik – Josh Norris – Vladimir Tarasenko
Mathieu Joseph – Shane Pinto* – Drake Batherson
Parker Kelly – Mark Kastelic – Zack MacEwen
ex: Ridly Greig, Matthew Highmore
* Pinto remains an unsigned RFA at the time of publication
The Sens’ top line was so good last season that it seems unwise to break them up. It gives the Sens a lefty (Stützle) and a righty (Giroux) to take draws, and the trio produced at an elite level last season.
That leaves Tarasenko and Batherson to occupy the other two right wing slots. Last season, Batherson and Pinto played together most of the time, and if that also stays intact, it leaves Tarasenko with Norris, who is returning from season-ending shoulder surgery.
Despite Tarasenko’s down season – 18 goals and 50 points in 69 games following a career-high 82 points in 2021-22 – it’s worth noting he has been an excellent possession player throughout his career. He’s very good at getting shots through, and despite not being a good-but-not-elite finisher (career 12.7 S%), he has scored at least 30 goals in every season he’s managed to play at least 75 games.
That kind of consistency is enviable, but the question is who will set him up. Robert Thomas’ pass-first style complemented Tarasenko very well with the Blues, but the Sens don’t quite have the same kind of playmaking center. Stützle and Giroux come closest, but the remaining forwards – Tkachuk, Norris, Pinto and Batherson – are known more for scoring goals and shooting pucks than passing them.
The lack of a playmaking center to pair with Tarasenko is the biggest cause for concern. There just won’t be many shots to go around if everyone’s looking to shoot, not to mention Tarasenko is no longer a high-volume shooter and his power-play production has been quite meager over the past four seasons (11 PPG in 178 GP). The Sens typically run a four-forward unit on the man advantage, and we assume Stützle and Tkachuk will take at least two of those spots, with either one of Giroux or Norris, or both, joining them.
If Tarasenko can play at least 75 games, average close to 18 minutes per game and shoot the puck more often – up to three shots per game after averaging just 2.4 last season – with the added motivation of cashing in next season, a 30-goal season is certainly within his sights. It just feels like it's going to be an uphill climb to get there given his declining shot totals, competition for ice time and lack of a set-up man. From a fantasy perspective, Tarasenko also doesn’t offer much else in other categories, so his fantasy value remains relatively unchanged.
The addition of Tarasenko does impact Batherson and Kubalik, however, who face competition for minutes in the top six. Batherson, coming off a disappointing 22-goal season with a minus-35 rating, may see his ice time dip. Kubalik, a middle-six scoring winger without outstanding passing or shooting skills, is unlikely to reach the 30-goal plateau from his rookie season when he got extraordinarily lucky.