Trade Deadline Fantasy Hockey Analysis

Here's a rundown of the players who have switched teams and marked with the recommended action, which include:

ADD = worth adding, his fantasy value may increase
HOLD = take a wait-and-see approach, either by leaving them on waivers or on your roster if you already have them
DROP = declining fantasy value

Buffalo Sabres

Bowen Byram, D (25% rostered) - ADD

Byram scored a goal and an assist in his Sabres debut, but the most important stat to me was his ice time: 24:58. Behind Cale Makar and Devon Toews, Byram was never going to get the requisite playing time to reach his maximum potential with the Avs, and he barely averaged 20 minutes for them. 

While I think Byram is worth at least a speculative add because his role with the Sabres will surely be much bigger than the one with the Avs, keep in mind the Sabres are not at full strength. They ran Dahlin and Byram on PP1, and they might play only Dahlin when Tage Thompson returns, which leaves Byram and Power on PP2. Mattias Samuelsson will surely play a ton of minutes, too, but that will be more of an issue next season. 

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Carolina Hurricanes

Evgeny Kuznetsov, C (11% rostered) - Role: 2C, PP2 - ADD/HOLD
Jake Guentzel, LW (94% rostered) - Role: Top-six LW - HOLD

Guentzel was a great pickup for the Canes, but from a fantasy standpoint, we need to pump the brakes a little bit. He still carries immense fantasy value, but perhaps slightly less so following the trade because the Canes have a bunch of good wingers and they like to balance out their lines. I don't think Guentzel averages anywhere close to 21 minutes per game. With the Pens, there was no question Guentzel was their top goal-scoring threat; with the Canes, he's one of many good players. I don't think his scoring pace will improve, if at all.

He's expected back soon, and if the Canes leave their top line intact, look for Guentzel to play with either Martin Necas or Seth Jarvis, or even both. 

The more interesting fantasy player to me is Kuznetsov, who suddenly has a lot more relevance. This is a fresh start for him and the Canes have plenty of players to pair with him. A talented playmaker who seems to have lost a lot of his drive over the years, I think Kuznetsov is a low-risk pickup for some top-six potential. The Canes thought Jesperi Kotkaniemi would be their No. 2 center, but he struggles to provide offense. I'm not sure if Kuznetsov will have to work his way up the depth chart or not, but he's an intriguing asset in deeper leagues. 

Colorado Avalanche

Casey Mittelstadt, C (33% rostered) - Role: 2C, PP2 - ADD

I love Mittelstadt in this situation. He did not have a strong debut with Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin on his wings, getting out-chanced 5 to 13 and outshot one to eight. It might take some time to figure out what works best for Mittelstadt, but as the No. 2 center on a high-octane offense, I really like the potential, both now and the long term. Mittelstadt has been one of the most popular pickups following the trade deadline.

Edmonton Oilers

Adam Henrique, C/LW (39% rostered) - Middle-six C/LW - HOLD/DROP

Henrique loses some value in leagues that count faceoffs because he's going to take less of them with Leon Draisaitl playing center and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins moving up and down the lineup. You'd think joining the Oilers would be good for Henrique's fantasy value, but he's not sharing the ice with Connor McDavid at all or playing on the power play. 

I think the Oilers acquired Henrique for his two-way game and versatility, and not really in a scoring role like he did for the Ducks. That pretty much kills his fantasy value in the scoring categories, though I'm willing to hold on to Henrique a little while longer just to be sure.

Florida Panthers

Vladimir Tarasenko, LW/RW (60% rostered) - Role: 1LW, PP2 - HOLD
Kyle Okposo, RW (1% rostered) - Role: Bottom-six RW - HOLD

Tarasenko played on the top like with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart in his Panthers debut, but finished with zero points, two hits and two blocks against the Flyers. He also played PP2 with Sam Bennett's unit. 

While the deployment is good at even strength, I think Tarasenko's game has changed from being a primary scoring threat to a complementary two-way winger. Remember last season when he moved to the Rangers, his scoring rate and minutes both dropped on a better team. I can see the same thing happening here; I wouldn't be really quick to add Tarasenko in this spot

Nashville Predators

Jason Zucker, LW (8% rostered) - Role: Middle-six LW - ADD/HOLD
Anthony Beauvillier, LW/RW (2% rostered) - Role: Bottom-six LW/RW - HOLD

I love both acquisitions for the Preds because it reinforces their new style of playing: hard, aggressive and fast. Both players have some jam, but it's Zucker you want to get with potential L2 minutes and some PP. 

Beauvillier is familiar to Barry Trotz because of their time together on Long Island, but he's never quite excelled in a scoring role, while Zucker is a proven 20-goal threat. For goals, shots and hits, Zucker can be a good depth add in multi-category leagues. 

New Jersey Devils

Kaapo Kähkönen, G (6% rostered) - HOLD
Jake Allen, G (12% rostered) - HOLD

Neither goalie will be available Saturday since Kähkönen will not arrive in time and Allen has some visa issues. It's hard to pick who will be the starter going forward, and I'm not sure the Devils know, either. All they know is that they needed two other goalies. 

I trust Allen a bit more, but Kähkönen is younger and therefore has more untapped potential. Let's wait and see what happens before we jump the gun. If either of them play well, be sure to pull the trigger quickly because there's upside in wins if they can stop pucks with some regularity. 

New York Rangers

Alex Wennberg, C (2% rostered) - Role: 3C, PP2? - HOLD
Jack Roslovic, C/RW (5% rostered) - Role: Middle-six RW, PP2? - ADD/HOLD

Wennberg is a pass-happy but very mid playmaker, and he never has much fantasy value unless you're looking for some faceoffs or in deep leagues. This story from way back about John Tortorella being frustrated at Wennberg for not shooting the puck always made me chuckle:

I doubt that changes now, and he was averaging close to 19 minutes with the Kraken. He's not going to come anywhere close to that with the Rangers, and the only way he adds value in fantasy is if he finds himself on the power play. 

Roslovic is more interesting because he's got some scoring pop and can play right wing. Even with Alexis Lafrenière switching to right wing, Kaapo Kakko's disappointing season means Roslovic could be their second-best option and play on Mika Zibanejad's line. That's great for Roslovic, who is streaky but can be productive in a scoring role. 

Pittsburgh Penguins

Michael Bunting, LW (27% rostered) - Role: Top-six LW, PP2? - ADD/HOLD

It does scare me a little that Kyle Dubas likes his former Soo Greyhounds so much, because it feels a bit like tunnel vision. Bunting is a middle-six left winger but might play an elevated role on the starved-for-scoring Pens, with the most ideal spot next to Sidney Crosby. 

Bunting is not even close to being in Jake Guentzel's league when it comes to scoring, but playing alongside an elite center will help. I think with more minutes -- he averaged 15:07 with the Canes -- he might be able to push his scoring rate up. The drawback with Bunting, however, is that despite his sandpaper he's not very good in the banger categories. If he's not scoring, he's not worth rostering. 

San Jose Sharks

Vitek Vanecek, G (49% rostered) - HOLD/DROP
Devin Cooley, G (0% rostered) - DROP

Funny how the Sharks have re-united Vanecek and Blackwood after the Devils ditched both of them. They must think they're the best tank commanders.

Anyway, there's chatter that Vanecek, who is on IR currently, could miss the remainder of the season. With Blackwood already unavailable, Cooley's expected to join the Sharks even though he's spent the entire season as the backup in AHL Rochester. 

That leaves Magnus Chrona as the Sharks' starter and the only goalie even worth a sprinkling of thought in fantasy. The Sharks have 20 games remaining -- they'll probably lose at least 15 of them as the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes heats up. 

Tampa Bay Lightning

Anthony Duclair, LW (5% rostered) - Role: Middle-six LW/RW, PP2 - ADD/HOLD
Matt Dumba, D (5% rostered) - Role: Top-four D, PP2? - HOLD

Joining the Lightning should help boost Duclair's fantasy value, but it's highly unlikely he shares the ice with Nikita Kucherov or Brayden Point. Duclair's average ice time will surely drop, so you're hoping he replaces quantity with quality. He might be worth a speculative add, but the Lightning lack playmakers to set up Duclair and he's not the best finisher, either. 

Dumba's going to play a ton of minutes to take some pressure off Victor Hedman. I'm not sure he replaces Darren Raddysh on PP2, but it would provide a slight boost to his fantasy value if he could. What you're looking for with Dumba is a higher volume of blocks and hits with increased ice time. 

Vegas Golden Knights

Tomáš Hertl, C (38% rostered) - Role: 2C, PP1? - ADD
Anthony Mantha, RW (7% rostered) - Role: Middle-six LW/RW, PP2 - ADD/HOLD
Noah Hanifin, D (69% rostered) - Role: Top pairing D, PP2 - ADD/HOLD

There is no return date set for Hertl, who underwent knee surgery and could be back closer to the end of the season. He's absolutely worth stashing as a potential top-six forward on a talented Knights team. Upon joining the lineup, look for him to be the No. 2 center with William Karlsson going back to a more matchup role and Chandler Stephenson being the most likely to move to the wing. Both now and in the long term, I think Hertl's fantasy value has increased significantly because it was starting to really sink with the moribund Sharks.

Mantha didn't register a shot in his Knights debut but we're seeing him on a scoring line with Stephenson and Karlsson, and on PP2. I think Mantha will get moved around until Bruce Cassidy finds a good fit, but this is encouraging for Mantha, who has more quality players to play with compared to the Caps. He's an extremely streaky scorer which renders him more of a streamer than someone to roster, but there's certainly some upside. 

Hanifin has value because D is such a thin position sometimes. He played 21:33 in his Knights debut alongside Alex Pietrangelo, and he'll offer decent stats across all categories, especially with points, shots and blocked shots. His role and fantasy value won't change much moving from the Flames -- Hanifin's steady and what you see is what you get -- but surrounding yourself with better teammates can always lead to a small boost. 

Winnipeg Jets

Tyler Toffoli, LW/RW (84% rostered) - Role: Top-six LW/RW, PP2 - ADD/HOLD

Toffoli will like join the top six and either bump Vladislav Namestnikov or Alex Iafallo. Toffoli's preference might've been to play in the U.S., but he's always played well in western Canada and I think Rick Bowness will like him because he's good at both ends of the ice. 

His stint with the Devils was underwhelming, but Toffoli's pretty consistent and I suspect he'll score goals at a similar rate, if not a little higher. The best-case scenario is if Toffoli moves up to play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, but playing alongside Sean Monahan isn't so bad, either. Toffoli and Monahan were teammates in major junior with the Ottawa 67's of the OHL. 

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