Finding the Next 50-goal Scorer

Scoring one goal in the NHL is hard enough. Scoring 50 might just be the hardest thing to do. 

Over the past two seasons, there have been only eight players who have scored 50 or more goals, and four of them just did it for the first time last season: Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen and Brayden Point.

With scoring rates increasing, we can reasonably expect a few new players to reach the 50-goal milestone in the upcoming season. Having a 50-goal scorer (or two, if you're lucky) on your fantasy team can obviously make a significant impact and help you achieve victory much more easily in your week-to-week matchups.

The below list includes 10 players with a chance to score 50 goals for the first time in their careers. Some of these players might only make it some of the way, and some might just come up short. But, if things go their way, we might just see some go all the way.

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche

2022-23: 42 Goals
Career High: 42 Goals

Last season was MacKinnon's best, achieving career highs in goals, assists, points, shots and plus-minus. If he didn't have to deal with another injury, all signs pointed toward him reaching the 50-goal milestone. This has been an unfortunate recurring characteristic of MacKinnon; over the past three seasons, he has missed at least eight games every season. 

With an 11.5 percent shooting percentage and 5.15 shots per game, a small bit of fortune and good health could do wonders for MacKinnon and the Avalanche.

Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Wild

2022-23: 40 Goals
Career High: 47 Goals

If it wasn’t for an unfortunate lower-body injury that kept him out for 14 games last season, it was looking good for Kaprizov to net over 50 goals. Two seasons ago, he scored 47 goals in 81 games with a 16.3 shooting percentage and, last season, he scored 40 in 67 with a 15.3 shooting percentage. 

His shooting percentage last season was the lowest of his career but he was affected by his injury. With a healthy season, we can expect his percentage to return to last season's mark or even to his rookie year mark at 17.2 percent. With Mats Zuccarello, his prime linemate, Kaprizov is expected to have an excellent bounce-back season with the Wild.

Tage Thompson, C, Sabres

2022-23: 47 Goals
Career High: 47 Goals

Last season, we saw the breakout of the six-foot-six power center who exploded for a career-high 47 goals and 94 points; he had the potential to be a 50-goal scorer if he hadn't missed four games. 

Last season, his shooting percentage went up less than one percentage point from 15.0 to 15.9 percent, but with an extra 42 shots on goal and doubling his power-play goals from 10 to 20, Thompson easily boosted his career high from 38 to 47. If Thompson can increase his shooting percentage, and factoring in the growth of a young Sabres core, scoring 50 goals should be no problem for him.

Matthew Tkachuk, LW/RW, Panthers

2022-23: 40 Goals
Career High: 42 Goals

Following back-to-back 40-goal seasons and a miracle run to the Stanley Cup final has put Tkachuk on a lot of people's radar this season. He saw a drastic increase in shots in his first season in Florida with 322, compared to his final season in Calgary with 253. 

But, in turn, his shooting percentage dropped significantly to 12.4 percent from 16.6 percent following the trade. If Tkachuk can bring that shooting percentage back up to somewhere closer to his efficiency with Calgary, we could see him go all the way to 50 this season.

Jason Robertson, LW, Stars

2022-23: 46 Goals
Career High: 46 Goals

Since the start of his career, Robertson has increased his production every season. He finished with 46 goals in 82 games last season, thanks to a massive increase in shots to 313 from 220 in the prior season, which offset a decrease in shooting percentage  to 14.7 from 18.6 percent. 

What hindered Robertson last year were his hot and cold streaks. In his first 25 games of the season, he scored 23 goals, but then proceeded to score only once over the next dozen games before finishing with 22 goals in his last 45 games. With more consistency, he could easily reach 50 goals.

Jack Hughes, C/LW, Devils

2022-23: 43 Goals
Career High: 43 Goals

Last year, we saw Jack Hughes blossom into a star with career highs across the board, thanks not only to a Devils team that was great on offense, but also staying healthy for almost the entire season with 78 games played. 

Hughes' (almost) first full 82-game season saw him average 4.3 shots a game with a 12.8 shooting percentage. Another full year with this kind of shot rate and shooting percentage, which hopefully increases, will see Hughes net 50 goals with this talented Devils team.

Alex DeBrincat, LW/RW, Red Wings

2022-233: 27 Goals
Career High: 41 Goals

Is this the year we see the revival of the old Alex DeBrincat we once saw back in Chicago? Last season was an outlier in Ottawa, and we hadn't seen a goal total this low since 2019-20 when he scored only 18. 

DeBrincat will be the guy to lean on for goals, just as Detroit relied on Dylan Larkin for 32 goals last season. DeBrincat is set to see a significant increase in production and time on ice as the leading shot creator for a revitalized team.

Kyle Connor, LW, Jets

2022-23: 31 Goals
Career High: 47 Goals

Compared to the season before, when he flirted with the 50-goal mark, Connor had an underwhelming season. He saw a decrease in shots per game to 3.33 from 4.01 and dropped his shooting percentage to 11.4 percent from 14.8 percent. 

Even with the loss of Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois, expect Connor to step up and lead this shaken-up team. They'll be relying heavily on their top line and power play to produce.

Cole Caufield, LW/RW, Canadiens

2022-23: 26 Goals
Career High: 26 Goals

Okay, this one might be a deep stretch since Caufield hasn’t even scored 30 goals nor played more than 67 games, but hear me out. Last season, Caufield had a career-high shooting percentage of 16.5 percent, which is somewhat skewed due to the lower number of games played, but Caufield is a high-volume shooter. 

Over an 82-game season, reaching 50 goals equates to 0.61 goals per game; Caufield, in his 46-game season, reached 0.57 goals per game – the numbers don’t lie. Expect a healthy Caufield with a young Montréal team to be firing on offense all year.

William Nylander, RW, Maple Leafs

2022-23: 40 Goals
Career High: 40 Goals

Despite reaching 40 goals last year, Nylander has been in the news more because of his contract negotiations than his on-ice play. This season will determine Nylander's next contract, including how much and where he will play.

After playing mainly on the right wing last season and averaging a career-high 3.6 shots per game, the Leafs announced in training camp that Nylander will see some time at center with Max Domi on one wing and possibly Calle Järnkrok or young Nick Roberston on the other. The position change could see Nylander handling the puck more often and his shooting percentage rise with Domi setting him up.

Honorable Mentions

Patrik Laine, LW/RW, Blue Jackets

2022-23: 22 Goals
Career High: 44 Goals

After a rough season with only 22 goals in 56 games, we hope to see a healthy Laine. With a new coach and a wave of young talent, we can expect Laine's shooting percentage and scoring to go pick up.

Elias Pettersson, C, Canucks

2022-23: 39 Goals
Career High: 39 Goals

We saw a Selke and Hart nominee version of Pettersson last season and we could see it again in a contract year. Scoring a career-high 39 goals and averaging 3.2 shots per game, we will see if Pettersson can prove last season wasn’t just a one-off. If he can increase his shots per game, we could potentially see something great.