TORONTO, ON — Last season, Warren Foegele was one of the NHL’s most quietly efficient scorers at five-on-five. He was tied for sixth in the entire league in even-strength goal production; he became a model of consistency on a Kings roster built to grind opponents into mistakes and convert depth chances. When you fast-forward to this season, that same gear looks stuck despite Foegele getting on the board against Toronto. His drop in production represents a symptom of a broader offensive regression that’s dragged the Kings from “quietly elite” to “frustratingly average” in one of hockey’s most telling metrics.
The Value of Even-Strength Scoring
In the NHL, where special teams can swing individual games but not entire seasons, the best indicator of sustainable success remains even-strength production. The Kings’ identity has always leaned on structured defense, neutral-zone transitional trapping, sustained cycling forecheck, and a game that is largely successful when played at even strength. That system only works when players like Foegele, relentless on retrievals, quick in the slot, and dangerous in motion, can finish at a steady clip.
Last year, that formula clicked. Foegele’s 23 goals at even strength ranked ahead of stars with far larger offensive roles, making him the most dangerous five-on-five scorer for LA ahead of players like Adrian Kempe (21g) and Kevin Fiala (18g) of LA’s even strength scoring. His ability to turn retrievals into possession time and chaos into offense balanced the top six’s streakiness.
This Year’s Problem: Flatlines at Five-on-Five
Through the first quarter of the current campaign, those sequences have evaporated. Foegele’s individual expected goals per 60 are down nearly 30%. Still, the bigger concern is systemic — Los Angeles ranks near the bottom-ten in league-wide five-on-five goals (33, good for 19th overall), despite maintaining nearly identical shot and possession metrics (5th in Corsi, 6th in Fenwick).
That paradox of high volume, low reward suggests the problem isn’t effort or structure, but finishing and timing. Shooting percentages have cratered across the middle six. What was once Foegele’s bread-and-butter, much like most of the team, is struggling with creating the mid-slot quick release off sustained cycle play, which has then turned into blocked shots or rebounds dying in traffic.
A Team-Wide Identity Issue
When the Kings hum, they roll four lines that each tilt the ice. When they don’t, they look like they’re playing in grayscale: all motion, no finish. It’s the same pattern haunting the team’s last few playoff exits: a heavy possession team that can’t convert its zone time into scoreboard pressure.
Foegele’s numbers, then, aren’t just a personal dip, but a mirror. The Kings’ expected goals per 60 at even strength still sit in the top half of the league, but their conversion rate has fallen sharply. It’s the kind of gap that separates true contenders from teams trapped in purgatory.
Fixing the Finish
Jim Hiller’s adjustments will define how the Kings weather this stretch. The offense at even strength has started to take life (+1 finally at 5-on-5: 33:32). With the fallout of Andrei Kuzmenko, there seem to be fewer and fewer options to fix their even-strength scoring.
The Kings don’t need Foegele to be a star, as he has always been a speedy, complementary top-nine winger, but rather, they need him to be what he already was: a reliable, even-strength engine that made the team’s depth dangerous. Scoring 20 goals was likely an anomaly given he produced the same number while playing with bona fide elite talent in Edmonton. But depth scoring, and in particular, his line with Phillip Danault and Trevor Moore, has been a catalyst for the Kings for going on four seasons.
Last season, in 365:16, the line outscored the opposition 22-8 at five-on-five. It was an elite even-strength line. In fact, the Kings rolled two elite lines at even strength, in the Danault line and the Quinton Byfield-Fiala-Alex Laferriere combination (20-6). Those two lines represented the number one and number three Goals% lines across the NHL last season for combinations playing over 330 minutes together.
The pace the Danault line is scoring at would land them at 10.8 goals for the year in the same time range as the season prior. Doing the same math, the Byfield line is operating similarly, at 10.6. That would be a 22-21 goal drop in production if that were sustained.
Hiller has seen a recent jump in production from Byfield and Fiala, and with Foegele getting on the board, this team has started to move past some early-season concerns. Still, the risk of receding production looms over this team’s overall ceiling, particularly if Joel Armia is the answer to the top line, or a 40-year-old Corey Perry is the go-to answer to find production.