Evaluating Kings Pierre-Luc Dubois' First 25 Games

The Los Angeles Kings made a big splash this summer, spending significant assets and money to acquire and sign forward Pierre-Luc Dubois.

As expected after such a big move, Dubois has been under a microscope since training camp.

Now, 25 games in it's fair to start evaluating Dubois' early performances with the team. Of course, the halfway mark is a better measuring stick and tells us more, but 25 games is still a good spot to look back at.

Flat out, the raw numbers haven't looked great for Dubois early on. He's posted five goals and 11 points through the first 25 games, putting him on pace for 16 goals and 36 points.

If these numbers hold up, it will be the lowest goal and point totals Dubois has reached in his career, excluding the shortened 2020-21 season where he played just 46 games. 

He's also on pace for a -10 plus-minus which would be the lowest in his career. 

His analytics also look okay at best. Like everyone on the team, the possession numbers look good. He's posting a 53.2 Corsi for percentage and 54.20 Fenwick for percentage per NaturalStatTrick.com.

He's also posting a team-low 48.0 goal percentage, he's the only player who's been on the ice for more goals against than for at 5-on-5.

It's worth noting that the team's expected goal percentage with Dubois on the ice is 56.51% and the team's on-ice shooting percentage is 7.19% with him on the ice. 

The team is controlling possession and chances with him on the ice but they aren't finishing.

So, he can claim a little bad luck for some of these numbers. However, his 3.5 goals scored below expected certainly isn't helping anything. 

Evolving-Hockey's numbers paint an even bleaker picture. They have him anchored at the bottom of the team posting a -3.4 goals above replacement and 0.5 wins above replacement.

His faceoff percentage sitting at just 44.7% is also an issue.

All these numbers lead to the obvious question, has Dubois been bad through his first 25 games?

I don't think so. The numbers don't look great and he certainly needs to be better, but I also think they paint a much worse picture than the reality of his play.

It's difficult adjusting to a new team and finding a line that works for you, something they're still looking for with Dubois. 

He's shown flashes of dominance, even if they haven't come consistently enough, and there's a little bad luck sprinkled in too. 

After 25 games my opinion on Dubois before he got the Kings hasn't been moved one way or the other.

He's an extremely talented player with the tools to take over shifts but is flawed. The lazy tag he's been given by some is unfair, but he certainly doesn't have the non-stop motor of players like Trevor Moore and Phil Danault.

He's also not a center in my eyes. He's never been prolific in the faceoff circle and is just okay defensively. His toolkit would be more beneficial at wing and it would give him more freedom to create offense. 

The Kings don't have to, and won't, move him to wing soon, but it's something to keep an eye on. 

There is some concern that players seem to perform better away from Dubois' line, Kevin Fiala and Arthur Kaliyev, while seeing a drop when moved onto his line, Carl Grundstrom.

The sample size is too small to make a definitive judgment on whether Dubois is the issue there, but it's another thing to keep an eye on.

It's also worth noting that Dubois hasn't found his usual success on the power play and has been playing on the second unit recently which impacts his production. 

While he certainly needs to be better, the team also needs to find a way to put him in a better spot to succeed.

Maybe that's juggling lines, or maybe it's moving him to wing, but they'll need to make some tweaks if the offense doesn't pick up soon.

Overall, Dubois has been fine, not great. Of course, as the third highest-paid player on the roster, he needs to be great.

He does deserve some time to settle in though. When we revisit his play at the 41-game mark, if things haven't improved, then there's reason for some concern.