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    Austin Stanovich
    Austin Stanovich
    Oct 10, 2023, 14:00

    With the Kings kicking of their season on Wednesday, now is the perfect time to project the 2023-24 season for Los Angeles.

    With the Kings kicking of their season on Wednesday, now is the perfect time to project the 2023-24 season for Los Angeles.

    © Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports - Kings 2023-24 Projection: 3 Keys & Worst Case Scenario

    The Hockey News AI projection model, Kevin, predicted the upcoming season. It predicted the Los Angeles Kings to finish third in the Pacific Division behind the Edmonton Oilers and Las Vegas Golden Knights.

    Here are the final projected finishes, as projected by Kevin, a predictive learning model created by Rachel Doerrie:

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    LOS ANGELES KINGS

    Last year: 47-25-10, 3rd in the Pacific Division (lost in the first round to the Edmonton Oilers)

    Projected: 3rd in the Pacific.

    Keys to the Season:

    1. Goaltending Holds Up: The big key for the 2023-24 season for the Kings is going to be goaltending. The Pierre-Luc Dubois trade created some cap problems for the Kings. forcing them to go bargain bin shopping for a goalie. They're starting the season with a duo of Cam Talbot and Pheonix Copley who make a combined $2.5 million this season. Both finished last season with a sub-.900 save percentage and a negative goals above expected. If they can't improve upon that this season, the Kings could be in trouble. If Talbot or Copley, preferably both, can provide quality goaltending, this Kings team can go very far.

    2. Improving the Penalty Kill: Last season, the Kings boasted the 9th-worst penalty kill in all of hockey and the league's worst penalty kill in the playoffs. In their series against the Edmonton Oilers — the best power play in league history — the Kings killed just 43.8% of their penalties. They will not make a deep run with a penalty kill that horrid this season. During training camp, they've switched up their penalty kill to more of a diamond setup, but it's yet to be seen what impact that has. Last season, the Kings made a massive improvement on the power play, this season, they have to do the same on the penalty kill.

    3. Surviving With a 21-Player Roster: Because of the Kings' cap situation, they will head into the season with just 21 players on their roster instead of the usual 23. This is already causing problems after Arthur Kaliyev's suspension. Because the Kings don't have room for a full roster, they're forced to play with 11 forwards and seven defensemen, something Todd McLellan has stated is less than ideal for them. This will just be for two games but points to a larger problem. If suspension or short-term injuries happen, and they will, the Kings aren't in a position to deal with them effectively. There's also a big problem in goal, if David Rittich is claimed off waivers, the Kings won't have a third goalie who can come up and reliably play games. If Talbot or Copley get injured or struggle, the Kings won't have an answer to that problem.

    Most-Likely Scenario: The Kings' firepower up front carries them to a comfortable playoff birth despite average, at best, goaltending before being eliminated in the second or third round of the playoffs.

    Worst-Case Scenario: The goaltending situation quickly falls apart as neither Talbot nor Copley are the answer and with Rittich claimed off waivers the Kings can't address the issue. They're forced to trade a skater like Viktor Arvidsson to create space for a new goalie, but the damage has been done and the team misses the postseason.