Projecting Vladislav Gavrikov’s Next Contract

Los Angeles Kings defensemen Vladislav Gavrikov may be in the midst of his finest NHL season. With Drew Doughty sidelined, he has been LA’s top defender by most every meaningful metric imaginable.

Among Kings defensemen that have played over 100 minutes, Gavrikov ranks first in the following categories at 5-on-5:

Shot Attempts For Percentage: 56.26%

Unblocked Shot Attempts For Percentage: 58.62%

Shots For Percentage: 59.49%

Expected Goals For Percentage: 60.50%

Scoring Chances For Percentage: 56.70%

High Danger Chances For Percentage: 59.85%

Furthermore, the newly minted pairing of Gavrikov and Mikey Anderson is the third best duo in the NHL in terms of Expected Goals Against.

Analytics aside, Gavrikov is a team leading +12 and is on pace for 31 points, which would represent the second highest offensive total of his career.

We’re not even in December and Gavrikov and his agent Daniel Milstein have to be licking their chops. The 29-year old Russian is due to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, 2024. Already earning $5.875 million in Average Annual Salary, Gavrikov will certainly be looking for a raise.

That’s where things get interesting. Gavrikov is already among the top shut-down defensemen in the league. In fact, finding a true comparable player to Gavrikov is a challenge. Gustav Forsling makes less than Gavrikov but scores more. Devon Toews makes a lot more but scores A LOT more. There are several more uneven comparables like this scattered across the league. However, I was able to land on one player that may not have a similar skillset to Gavrikov, but has a similar career trajectory.

On July 1st, 2023, then 32-year old Dmitry Orlov signed a 2-year, $15.5 million contract with the Carolina Hurricanes, putting his AAV at $7.75 million. When people think of Orlov, many times they think of an offensive defenseman. But Orlov’s numbers do not match his reputation. He’s eclipsed the 30-point mark just four times in 14 seasons, with his career high of 36 points coming two seasons ago. Before signing with Carolina, Orlov’s AAV was $5.1 million.

Now, there are a couple of variables at play here. Gavrikov’s timing is far superior to Orlov’s in that the NHL salary cap is projected to rise for the second consecutive summer, with a chance of landing between $94 and $97 million. That would be anywhere from $11-14 million more than when Orlov signed with Carolina.

Does all this mean Gavrikov is going to get $8 or $9 million on the open market? Hard to say, but it’s possible. For that reason, if the Kings are keen on retaining Gavrikov, they must be aggressive in their potential pursuit of an in-season extension. All this said, here is my projection for Gavrikov's next deal: