Despite His Recent Playoff Performance, The Wild Shouldn’t Move On From Marcus Foligno

Should the Wild look to move on from their alternate captain?

Welcome to the offseason series where we will look at each player’s impact this past season, what their future in Minnesota looks like, and what to expect in 2023-24.

I get the whole Marcus Foligno cost the Wild the playoffs series thing because he had 35 penalty minutes, but was him in the penalty box the only thing that cost the Wild a playoff series win?

In game one against the Dallas Stars, Kirill Kaprizov scored a power-play goal to give the Wild an early 1-0 lead. He didn’t record a point for the rest of the playoffs. The Stars also scored two power-play goals on the first six seconds of each man advantage.

In game two, the Wild allowed a shorthanded breakaway to Roope Hintz and followed that up by taking a double minor high sticking penalty, which allowed Tyler Seguin to score on the power play. In the second period, Jon Merrill took a cross-checking penalty on Jamie Benn, who then scored 20 seconds later.

In game four, the Wild only took three penalties but still allowed two power-play goals. Dallas won 3-2 and eventually won three straight to eliminate the Wild.

In game five, Foligno took a kneeing penalty that probably shouldn’t have been a kneeing penalty, and Tyler Seguin scored eight seconds later. Later, Jake Middleton took a cross-checking penalty that Jason Robertson scored on 17 seconds later.

In game six, the Wild looked flat and defeated, eventually losing 4-1 to the Stars and were sent packing after their seventh straight first round exit.

The Stars went 9-for-24 on the power play with five of their nine power-play goals coming 20 or less seconds after the penalty was called. Which means most of their power play goals came seconds after Dallas won the faceoff.

Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, and Kaprizov combined for five goals in the playoffs. Evgenii Dadonov, Hintz, Seguin, and Robertson combined for 12 goals against the Wild. So the Stars’ top players produced seven more goals than the Wild’s top players.

I understand Foligno took some bad penalties and some that maybe shouldn’t have been penalties. But at the end of the day, you can’t blame it all on him when your penalty kill is allowing power play goals no more than 20 seconds after the penalty was taken.

Missing Mason Shaw and Joel Eriksson Ek on the penalty kill was a big reason why it was as bad as it was as well so It wouldn’t be fair not to mention that but you get the point.

Despite what people say about Foligno, he still is one of the game’s best defensive forwards. According to evolving hockey, in 2017-18, Foligno finished fifth in the NHL in xGA/60, second in 2018-19, 18th in 2019-20, first in the NHL in 2020-21, and in 2021-22 Foligno ranked ninth in xGA/60. 

This year was the first year that Foligno has ranked outside of the top 20 in xGA/60 in his last five seasons.

One bad season shouldn’t result in the Wild giving up on the 31-year-old power forward. Sure, he had a rough season offensively but that is only because he was one year removed from a 23-goal season where he notched 42 points.

Although it may seem like Foligno’s seven-goal and 21-point season was a down year, it is exactly the type of season he usually has. The only difference is he’s always finished in the top 20 in defensive metrics and this year he didn’t.

Foligno has been in the NHL since 2011-2012. Since then, he has only had one season under 18 points which was his rookie year when he recorded 13 points in 14 games. He has also eclipsed 25 points only three times.

He is a power forward who is going to get you around ten goals a season and around 20 to 25 points but that is okay because of the elite defense he plays. With only one year left on his contract, the Wild will have to decide if they want to keep him around or let him go.

I think this year could be the factor in keeping him around or letting him go. Could he get back to playing elite defense again? His track record of defensive dominance says it’s capable which is a huge reason why I wouldn’t let his recent playoff performance hinder my opinion on trading him or keeping him before the 2023-24 season starts. 

That being said, come the trade deadline you have to ask yourself where you see this team. If the Wild are at the deadline and not looking like a playoff team then maybe you move on from Foligno. 

The Wild still owe just a hair under $15,000,000 in dead salary until the 2025-26 season. This money is from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. That 14.743 million in dead cap makes it pretty hard to still have a playoff-contending team but the Wild have shown it is possible despite not reaching their ultimate goal. 

Once the 14.7 million is reduced to a reasonable 1.6 million, the Wild would be in the 2025-26 season where Foligno would be 34 years old. This is where it gets tough to map out. If Foligno has another down year defensively then you would think to let him go. But if he returns to form then you would look to keep him despite having a high trade value. 

Moving on from Foligno at the deadline or before the season starts would provide salary cap relief but also a spot for a younger forward to grab for the taking. Which is a good thing considering the Wild have the best prospect pool in the NHL. 

So unless you think you're a sure-fire elite Stanley Cup contending team then keep Foligno if he returns to form. If you aren't that great of a contending team then I'd bite the bullet of possibly missing the playoffs if it meant I got to see what this prospect pool was made of by playing some of the prospects. 

The tough thing is, most of the Wild's top offensive prospects are two or three years away from making an impact in the NHL. 

Whatever the decision is, the Wild will be a good spot either way. Either you get the elite defensive forward in Foligno for another season or you allow a spot for a youngster to take while also freeing up some salary cap in the making. 

Aaron's 2023-24 Foligno predictions: 15 goals and 17 assists for 32 points. 

Dylan's 2023-24 Foligno predictions: 12 goals and 13 assists for 25 points.