Way-Too-Early Roster Projection for the Montreal Canadiens

With more than three months until opening night for the Montreal Canadiens new season, it is too early to project a roster, but we decided to do it anyway!

One of my favorite activities to complete during the offseason is to project the Canadiens lineup for the first match of the upcoming season. With the first wave of free agency signings behind us, now is a good time to take an initial stab at it. 

Here are the assumptions that will apply across the board for this exercise:

Let's state the obvious. The first two assumptions will not materialize, which will force the projections to be updated from now until the Canadiens open the 2023-'24 season on October 11th in Toronto. That's what makes this a way-too-early look at the opening night roster.

The projected forward group assumes that Alex Newhook and Jesse Ylonen are signed before the start of camp, and that Denis Gurianov is not re-signed. In addition, the Athletic reported that Christian Dvorak will not be ready for the first game of the season as he's recovering from the knee surgery he underwent on March 15th. His absence will allow Montreal to place him on injured reserve to start the season. 

When meeting the media on July 1st, Kent Hughes mentioned that the rest of the league is aware that he has too many forwards on his roster. 

If the forward group remained intact, there's no room for any young players to earn a spot with the big club. Rem Pitlick's name not appearing on the list is not an omission. I believe that Rafael Harvey-Pinard will earn a spot to begin the year in Montreal despite being waiver exempt. As a result, Pitlick would be placed on waivers. Last year, he went unclaimed by the 31 other teams on waivers and dressed for 18 matches in Laval.  

Considering where the Canadiens are in their rebuild process, they need younger forwards like Jesse Ylonen to have a bigger role rather than rotating in and out of the lineup. To top that up, Emil Heineman, Owen Beck, Sean Farrell are amongst the young forwards that should at least have an opportunity to fight for a spot.  

The easy solution is to sit out or waive Mike Hoffman and Joel Armia. The Canadiens had the option of buying out Hoffman at a small cost but opted to hold on to the contract. This likely means that the club is looking to increase his value and trade him at some point before the trade deadline. To accomplish this objective, Hoffman needs regular ice time and time on the power play. 

An observation from the projection is that the organization will have tough decisions to make on defense as well. One of the defenders will need to move from left to right to get regular ice time. 

Justin Barron is a casualty of the logjam at the blue line and would begin the season in the AHL for a second consecutive year. 

Prior to the start of the 2022-'23 season, Hughes shared a plan of rotating the young defensemen between the NHL and AHL levels to give them the opportunity to have important roles and a lot of ice time. That never materialized due to the quantity of injuries that transpired in Montreal. 

Is this something that can be accomplished this season? Barron, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj and Jordan Harris are waiver exempt. I don't see a scenario where Guhle spends time in Laval, therefore I would exclude his name from that possibility. 

There's a decision that will need to be made by Hughes before the start of the season as the club currently has three goalies with NHL contracts. As of this upcoming season, Cayden Primeau requires to clear waivers to join the AHL. I think that if the Canadiens place Primeau on waivers, a team would take a chance on a 23-year old that would cost nothing in exchange. 

It was a coin toss to determine the identity of the starting goalie for the season opener. Last season, the duo split the starts as the year progressed. 

Ultimately, I leaned towards Jake Allen getting the call in Toronto with the thought that Sam Montembeault starts the home opener a couple of days later against the Chicago Blackhawks. Montembeault may have a contract extension and it would make for a special moment to have the Bell Centre fans salute the 26-year-old.

If the season began at home, I think that Montembeault would get the start. 

The conclusion of this exercise is that despite the assumption indicated at the beginning of this post, it is safe to bet that Hughes will make more roster moves before the team heads to Toronto. 

The general manager has forwards, left defensemen and a goalie to spare. Ideally, the return for Hughes would be younger assets or future draft picks. The reality is that he will likely have to sacrifice some young assets to accomplish his objective.