Juuse Saros kept a young team in the postseason conversation until the last week of the regular season in 2022-23. Could he do enough in 2023-24 to earn more Hart Trophy votes?
Juuse Saros kept a young team in the postseason conversation until the last week of the regular season in 2022-23. Could he do enough in 2023-24 to earn more Hart Trophy votes?
On June 26, Connor McDavid won the Hart Trophy at the NHL Awards in Nashville. It was no surprise when McDavid's name was called after yet another outstanding season as the superstar of the NHL.
McDavid earned 195 first place votes with David Pastrnak garnering the single first place vote cast for another player. McDavid's 64 goals and 153 points in the 2022-23 regular season make a compelling case for such a landslide win, and the NHL may hear his name called repeatedly throughout the rest of his career when it comes to the Hart Trophy announcement. According to Bet MGM, McDavid is the odds on favorite to win in 2023-24 with Nathan McKinnon, teammate Leon Draissaitl, Matthew Tkachuk, and Auston Matthews rounding out the top five candidates.
It's been eight years since a goaltender took home the Hart. In 2015 Carey Price won the Hart Trophy after a career season in Montreal that earned him not just the Hart but also the Vezina that year. The dominance of Connor McDavid aside, the odds aren't favorable for a goaltender to win the next Hart Trophy. Ilya Sorokin has the best odds for a goalie at +8000 with Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, and Juuse Saros slightly behind at +10000.
Three other goalies finished ahead of Saros in the voting last season. Sorokin, Ullmark, and Hellebuyck collected 127 points, 61 points, and 22 points respectively ahead of Saros' four points in Hart voting. Setting aside the existential hockey debate of what it actually means to be the "most valuable player to his team", there are three reasons why Juuse Saros could finish with more Hart Trophy votes at the end of next season.
Saros may do more with less early.
The Nashville Predators will need to rely on Saros right out of the gate as the team sorts out a very different looking roster and integrates new systems from head coach Andrew Brunette. Saros will be especially important in net as the defense in front of him builds chemistry with new pairings after the departure of Mattias Ekholm and additions of Tyson Barrie at the trade deadline and Luke Schenn in free agency.
Without Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, it may take the offense some time to find their stride as young players like Luke Evangelista and Juuso Pärssinen could settle back into the lineup and new-to-Nashville veterans Ryan O'Reilly and Gustav Nyquist play more minutes with new line mates. Saros can take some time to warm up in October, but if he can get to regular season form quickly he may help Nashville win tough games in October and help the Predators gain confidence early.
Saros could steal games at the end of the season.
The NHL saw him steal wins at the end of last season when the Predators were playing without nearly all of their big names. Josi, Forsberg, Johansen, and Duchene were all out with injuries, and Saros kept a pieced together young team in the playoff hunt right up until the final week of the season.
If somehow the Predators can find themselves close to a wildcard opportunity in early April, it will be Saros who could steal enough games to make that happen. Of the final ten games of the 2023-24 season, eight are against playoff caliber teams or divisional rivals. If the Finnish goalie can come close to his 46.7 goals saved above expected from last season, he could carry this resetting Predators team into a surprise playoff opportunity.
Saros can play all season long.
Impressing Hart voters isn't just about the gaps Saros can cover early in the season or the games he can steal late. Perhaps one of the most impressive aspects of Saros' game is how often he plays. Last season, Saros played 64 games and in 2021-22 he was in net for the Preds 67 times. Despite having a reliable backup in Kevin Lankinen, Saros plays his best hockey when he is playing consistently.
The Hockey News writer Rachel Doerrie may have summed up Hart voting best when it comes to Saros, Sorokin, and Shesterkin in her recent article about the award.
-There are three goalies who have proven to be MVP calibre the past few seasons: Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin. Neither the Islanders nor the Predators sniff the playoffs without the performance of their goaltenders last season. Both Saros and Sorokin were deservedly in the Hart conversation and frankly, could've been nominated ahead of Pastrnak and Tkachuk. If we are to judge based on the definition of the award, only McDavid was as important to the Oilers success last season as Sorokin and Saros were to their respective teams. The problem is, goalies rarely win the Hart even though it is widely accepted that without a good goalie, it is exceedingly difficult to have sustained success.
Rachel Doerrie, Betting on Award Winners: The Hart Trophy
Stealing the Hart from the hands of Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews, or Nathan McKinnon is probably not in the cards for Saros next season, but if the Predators find themselves exceeding expectations in this roster reset it will be thanks to Juuse Saros. Hart voters would do well to pay attention.