Rachel Dorrie's AI projection model "Kevin" predicts an improved point performance for Filip Forsberg this season.
Rachel Dorrie's AI projection model "Kevin" predicts an improved point performance for Filip Forsberg this season.
After a career best season in 2021-22 for Filip Forsberg, last season was more challenging for the Swedish forward who played 19 fewer games due to injury. Injury aside, Forsberg wasn't able to sustain 2021-22's robust 4.0 points/60 in 2022-2023.
With the addition of Ryan O'Reilly, a new head coach in Andrew Brunette, and the introduction of Brunette's more offensively focused system, Forsberg is looking for a bounce back season. One projection model is predicting that as well.
Rachel Dorrie has created a deep learning player projection model using AI affectionately called "Kevin" that currently projects goals, assists, points, shots, hits, saves, face-off wins and losses, penalty minutes, and plus/minus. The model uses a myriad of information from several sources including previous seasons performances, factors that impact scoring, and manual inputs including situational changes. The beauty of "Kevin" is that the model updates as games as played during the season.
Before the first puck drop of the regular season, "Kevin" can project a player's performance based on all these factors. The preseason predictions for Filip Forsberg are in, and the heart of the Predators' offense is expected to score between 72-81 points.
If the expectation ends up being accurate at the end of the season, it would be Forsberg's second best year. In 2021-22, the Swedish winger scored 42 goals and 84 points. Getting close to the points prediction would require a few factors to go Nashville's way.
Forsberg needs to stay healthy. Although he reached the 84 point in 69 games played in 2021-22, a healthy Forsberg is going to be essential for a resetting Nashville team. From 2014-2017 Forsberg played all 82 games in three back to back seasons. In the last three seasons, Forsberg has dealt with a handful of injuries that saw him play 158 of 220 games since 2020. A concussion sidelined him in February and he missed the remainder of the season. Now Forsberg is healthy, and staying that way will matter if he hopes to hit the high end of "Kevin's" point projection.
Signing Ryan O'Reilly may also help Forsberg reach those numbers. O'Reilly and Forsberg have been skating together throughout most of camp, and the two are building chemistry. "Kevin" predicts O'Reilly will record between 49-61 points this season. If the duo can find a potential top line mate who can generate offensive chances — Juuso Pärssinen perhaps — Forsberg will benefit.
Time will be a factor when it comes to Forsberg reaching his projected points. The team is learning a new system under Andrew Brunette. The sooner Forsberg and his line mates can become comfortable with the new system and each other, the better chance Forsberg has of meeting high expectations in 2023-24.
By trading Ryan Johansen and buying out Matt Duchene, Barry Trotz has shown he believes that Forsberg can be the player who drives the offense for this team. Starting with Tuesday's opening regular season game, "Kevin" will be tracking Forsberg's stats and his projections will begin to adjust accordingly. Hitting his preseason points projection would go a long way towards moving a resetting Predators team forward this season.
Brunette, O'Reilly Talk Predators' Biggest Preseason Improvements
Predators Reflect on Coaching Wisdom on National Coaches Day
Nashville Predators Begin Season at #32 in THN Power Rankings