How the NHL's Potential Salary Cap Increase Affects Islanders in 2024-25

With the NHL gearing up for an exponential salary-cap rise, how will that affect the New York Islanders for the 2024-25 season?

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the National Hockey League could not raise the salary cap as expected. 

It's something that affected every team in the NHL, including the New York Islanders.

When we spoke with general manager Lou Lamoriello ahead of the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville, he was asked about free agency. 

"This is a unique year for a lot of reasons because of the cap. And when you talk unique because of the cap, you also have to think of the year coming up after this year and the year coming up after that," Lamoriello said. "We're in this position because of what happened with assumptions which -- it's real bad word -- of where the cap would be. So some of the signings that we made three years ago [...] we would not have done because, in your planning, you also know what the progression will be and can be because of where the revenues are going."

A few days later, Lamoriello shipped Josh Bailey and his $5 million cap hit to the Chicago Blackhawks, who immediately bought out the 33-year-old.

Bailey is currently on a PTO with the Ottawa Senators, who are also cap-strapped. 

Outside of that move, Lamoriello kept all his pending free agents around, signing them to longer-term deals than many would have liked. 

Netminder Semyon Varlamov, a true backup for the 2023-24 season, received a four-year deal worth $2.75 million. Forward Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield each agreed to seven-year deals, with Engvall earning $3 million a year while Mayfield signed for $3.5 million.

Hudson Fasching, Zach Parise 2.0, signed a two-year extension worth $775,000 annually. Depth forward Julien Gauthier came in on a two-year deal worth $1.575 million. 

On top of that, franchise goaltender Ilya Sorokin made life a tad easier for New York, not asking for the moon and signing an eight-year extension worth $8.25 million, which kicks in next season. 

As we sit here on Oct. 5, the Islanders are $486,000 and change over the salary cap, per CapFriendly. The waiving of offseason depth signing Karson Kuhlman would shed $775,000 off the books, giving the Islanders an excess of $288,375. 

The Islanders could also waive Ross Johnston and his $1.1 million, allowing for more deadline cap accrual. 

The Islanders must be cap-compliant by Oct. 14. 

On Wednesday, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman provided some incredible news regarding the salary cap for next season. 

"Very preliminary projection, but we believe the escrow ($1.5 billion) will be paid off in full, and the cap will be somewhere between $87-$88 million for the following year," Bettman said (H/t NHL.com).

Let's take a look at the Islanders' books for 2024-25 and how this news affects the organization. 

As of now, the Islanders will be entering the 2024 offseason with four unrestricted free agents and three restricted free agents. 

UFAs: Matt Martin, Cal Clutterbuck, Karson Kuhlman, Paul LaDue, Sebastian Aho, Arnaud Durandeau (Group 6 UFA)

RFAs: Oliver Wahlstrom, Robin Salo, Dennis Cholowski

The Islanders have $48.71 million reserved for their forwards, not including Johnston's cap hit. 

The backend totals $22.7 million, with the goaltenders coming in at $11 million for a grand total of $82.41 million.  

In theory, if the cap goes up as much as Bettman is thinking, that would leave the Islanders with $4.59 million in cap space before bringing back their free agents if that's the route they go. 

Wahlstrom, who signed his qualifying offer for $874,125 and if he has a strong year, will do for a pay raise if he's not moved at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. 

Although $4.59 million isn't a whole lot of space, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Lamoriello does move out certain players depending on where the Islanders are at around the trade deadline. 

The Islanders' prospect pool, which continues to get abused in the rating department, has a few prime players who, quite frankly, could compete for an NHL spot next season, like William Dufour and Matthew Maggio.

That would benefit the Islanders financially, as both are on their entry-level contracts, both under $900,000 annually. 

Could we see Jean-Gabriel Pageau and his $5 million hit moved at some point, as he was a player rumored to be part of a deal that would have brought Ottawa's Alex DeBrincat to the island a few months ago before he was dealt to the Detroit Red Wings. 

Could we see the Islanders move Kyle Palmieri, who has one more year at $5 million following this season?

Could top defense prospect Isaiah George lead to a move on the backend if the organization deems he's ready for the NHL?

Although a standout at development camp and training camp, George has yet to play a pro game, as he's finishing up his final year in juniors, and the last thing the organization needs to do is rush this 19-year-old who has an incredibly high ceiling. 

Just something to keep an eye on.

This past summer, we saw many free agents who, in years past, would have taken multi-year deals, but elected to sign one-year contracts because the cap was expected to go up.  

Could this upcoming summer be the year the Islanders get the final piece to the Bo Horvat-Mathew Barzal puzzle?

Names like Steven Stamkos, who voiced his displeasure with not having contract talks before the start of the Lightning season, may hit the market. William Nylander has been rumored to be on the move from Toronto, given their cap situation, which the cap increase would alleviate a bit. 

Panthers' Sam Reinhart, Penguins' Jake Guentzel, and Golden Knight's Jonathan Marchessault are all pending free agents. 

Being logical, these moves can't just happen, and the Islanders' track record of bringing in players of this caliber in free agency-- let me repeat -- in free agency isn't great. 

Quite frankly, if Horvat and Barzal click the way they are intended, having a high-caliber scorer on the first line just isn't the need. 

A hard-working player who wins board battles and gets the puck to either of the two would do the trick, like an Engvall or even a Gauthier and Fasching. 

Now, that's not ideal, given that those three may not be "first line" material, but it's not the most talented player that's needed.

What's needed is the right player.

Another avenue that needs discussion is how the cap increase makes contracts on the Islanders more manageable and moveable. 

There were many fans who weren't happy with the terms of Engvall and Mayfield's contracts, given seven-year deals out like it was candy. 

But, given the AAV of both deals mentioned above -- the Engvall deal could turn into the steal of the summer -- if Lamoriello or whoever the general manager wants to move those details, it shouldn't be hard to find a keeper. 

Over the next few years, those two players will have contracts severely under market value for what they provide, especially Engvall. 

And that's the point of those deals if you dive below the surface. The same can be said about all the Islanders' long-term deals, like Barzal, Horvat, and Sorokin.

It's also why it was a head-scratcher that Wahlstrom was only given a one-year deal because, if he does explode and have a monstrous season, the Islanders will have to now pay him based on the market, which is going to rise. 

Signing him to a 2-3 year deal this past summer at $1 million would at least have had him under team control as insurance. 

But that's neither here nor there, as it didn't get done. 

The reality is if Bettman's words turn into the truth, the Islanders won't be cap-strapped heading into the summer, and that's a sure positive for the organization,