Islanders 2024 Offseason Priority: Forward Or Defenseman?

The easy answer is that the Islanders should get themselves the best forward available, a final puzzle piece for Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. But what about upgrading their shaky defense?

With the New York Islanders' salary cap-strapped for a second straight summer, $7.05 million available before potential re-signings, they must spend their money wisely to improve the club. 

Should the Islanders focus on bolstering their top six, or should the focus lie on upgrading the blue line?

The easy answer is that the Islanders should get themselves the best forward available, a final puzzle piece for Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal.

In terms of potential free-agent forwards, the Islanders will be unable to afford top-tier forwards like Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos unless they make significant cap-clearing moves. 

So, if the Islanders are going to bolster their forward group and get a top-line player, it's more likely to come via trade. 

We wrote about how Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers could be the financially feasible missing piece last week:

If acquired, the Islanders would take on the final year of his deal, a $6 million cap hit, before likely inking him to a seven to eight-year extension worth $7-$8 million annually.

The Islanders would also need to ship someone out since they have restricted free agents to re-sign and potentially one of their unrestricted free agents. 

Like a broken record, we'll mention centerman Jean-Gabriel Pageau and his $5 million cap hit, as it just seems like the more likely move to save space, with Kyle MacLean bursting onto the scene, a pending restricted free agent who made $800,000 this past season. 

With Pageau off the books, the Islanders would have $12.05 million in cap space.

If Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, two players who will be entering the final year of their deals in the fall, aren't moved, the second line could also use a solidifying piece.

In theory, if the Islanders want to save money, they could try Pierre Engvall back on the second line for the third time after a strong playoff run, but the Swedish forward seems more comfortable playing a bottom-six role.

If the dollar amounts could work, a player like Tampa Bay Lightning's pending unrestricted free agent Anthony Duclair, who played for head coach Patrick Roy in juniors, would be a perfect fit for that line.

Duclair's expiring deal carries a cap hit of $3 million, and after a 42-point season (24 goals, 18 assists) split between the San Jose Sharks and Lightning, his new deal won't be expensive. 

if Pageau's full cap hit comes off the books, Ehlers at $6 million and Duclair at $3.5 million would be doable, leaving the Islanders with $2.55 million in available space. 

That would likely be enough to ink RFAs MacLean and Simon Holmstrom (~$1 M AAV each), but what about improving the defense?

Given the way head coach Patrick Roy wants to play — a strong transition game — a player who can start the breakout is essential.

Noah Dobson, who was in the Norris Trophy conversation for most of the season, is a bright young star in this league, but despite his offensive prowess, potting 10 goals with 60 assists for 70 points in 79 games, he hasn't been a skate-the-puck-up guy yet.

That doesn't mean he can't become that, but that's something he hasn't proven to be, and that's a need in Roy's system.

Mike Reilly, a defenseman that the Islanders claimed off waivers in late November, does exactly that, and his play certainly earned him an extension.

Since the 2022-23 season, it's been clear that the Islanders need to play better in front of their netminders. 

With the injuries to the blue line this past season, especially to 29-year-old Adam Pelech, another shutdown left-side defenseman may be more critical than an ultra-mobile defenseman. 

The first name that comes to mind is Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brady Skjei, who is on an expiring deal at $5.25 million annually.

He may be too expensive, but the Islanders seem to need that kind of player on the back end, especially to help out on the penalty kill, which finished the season dead last in the NHL at 71.5 percent. 

In theory, the Islanders could try to move Pelech and his $5.75 million cap hit and use that money to upgrade his role, but with him signed through 2028-29 with a 16-team no-trade clause, that won't be easy. 

If the Islanders could add one piece to their top six and backend, that should be a success.

But if it comes down to just upgrading one side of the ice, what's the right call?

In 37 regular season games under Roy, the Islanders scored 3.05 goals per game, allowing 2.89.

Given how much the defense and penalty kill struggled, adding a shutdown defenseman who can move the puck up the ice quickly may be a more valuable add than spending the bulk of the money on a top-flight forward.