The New York Islanders need salary-cap space, and trading third-line centerman Jean-Gabriel Pageau to get his $5 million cap hit off the books would help. But at what cost?
The New York Islanders need salary-cap space, and trading third-line centerman Jean-Gabriel Pageau to get his $5 million cap hit off the books would help. But at what cost?
The New York Islanders need salary-cap space, and trading third-line centerman Jean-Gabriel Pageau to get his $5 million cap hit off the books would help.
However, moving Pageau isn't so simple.
There's no doubt that the 31-year-old struggled offensively, with 11 goals and 22 assists for 33 points in 82 games. During his final interview of the season, he made it clear that he wasn't happy with his game.
"Not good enough," Pageau said. "There's obviously some stuff that I did well, but way more stuff, I think, I could have been better at. I'm still going to go back and look exactly where I can do better and work on this summer."
With the emergence of Kyle MacLean and what he brought to the team for the cost of an $800,000 cap hit, $4.2 million cheaper than Pageau, it's easy to think that the rookie made the veteran center expendable.
MacLean is faster than Pageau and might be able to provide more consistent offense if given a full season after nine points (four goals, five assists) in 32 games.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTZBGazUqUs[/embed]
He also has the skills to be a dominant penalty killer at the NHL level, something Pageau struggled with this past season despite being a shutdown center at 5-on-5.
However, there's one area of their game where Pageau is exponentially better: the face-off dot.
Pageau led the Islanders with a 55.4 face-off percentage, while MacLean won just 42.5 percent of his draws, something that head coach Patrick Roy wants to see him improve upon.
Regardless of the zone, winning face-offs is integral to success, whether it's generating more offensive zone time or kickstarting a defensive zone breakout.
While MacLean has the potential to be a strong penalty killer, he is unproven in that role at the NHL level, with a big part of that being able to win key defensive-zone draws.
If anything, MacLean is more of a Casey Cizikas copy, still with face-off success (53.4%) being the main difference.
Does the cap relief after moving Pageau outweigh the skill difference between him and MacLean?
Islanders general managers Lou Lamoriello and Roy will need to answer that question as the offseason progresses. They will likely need to make a decision on that front before the 2024 NHL Draft on June 28.
If Pageau is on the move, the Islanders are losing their best shutdown centerman, a key piece to a penalty kill, their best face-off performer, and a gritty, trustworthy player.
This past Monday, we wrote a story about how the Islanders could use the second-round pick they just acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks to move Pageau or Islanders captain Anders Lee.
The one response we continued to get from this piece was the value from Pageau, and it was a fair response.
Around the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, we went on record saying that the Islanders could have brought back a first-round pick for Pageau's skill, and now we say that they would likely need to include a second to move him.
Make it make sense.
The belief is that during the season, a shutdown centerman, who plays on both special teams and wins face-offs, is a hot commodity on the trade market.
A key win in the dot could be the difference between making the playoffs and, when in the playoffs, could be the difference in a series.
Teams are more desperate during the deadline, and with the use of Long-Term Injured Reserve, bringing on player switches with bigger cap hits is possible, as there is no salary cap once the playoffs begin.
We've seen overpays at the trade deadline all the time, especially if a handful of teams are all interested in the same player.
Per The Athletic's Arthur Staple, teams expressed interest in Pageau, but Lamoriello said he wasn't available.
That suggests that the Islanders didn't view MacLean as a true Pageau replacement and that he was an integral part of a team that believed it could make the playoffs, which it ultimately did.
While Pageau could still be a key player for the Islanders or a true Stanley Cup contender, things change once the season ends.
Teams can take a step back and assess their cap situation.
Unlike at the deadline, free agency allows teams to part ways with cap space to bring on players rather than give up picks, prospects, and players to upgrade their team.
There are also a tremendous number of centers expected to be available this offseason, including Jonathan Marchessault (can play center), Elias Lindholm, Alex Wennberg, and Jack Roslovic.
So, why should a team trade assets for a player like Pageau?
Because of the sweetener, that is.
Attaching a second-round pick entices teams to take on the cap hit while potentially boosting their prospect pool, as you can never have too much draft capital in your arsenal.
Was Pageau's value at the trade deadline a first-round pick?
Did we overvalue the market?
It's possible.
Maybe Pageau would have gone for a second-round pick.
But now, teams know the Islanders' cap situation, and no one will make it easy for them.
Pageau has more value than Josh Bailey, who the Islanders traded to the Blackhawks last summer with a second-round pick for future considerations.
Quite frankly, fourth-line centerman turned top-line winger Casey Cizikas, at $2.5 million through 2026-27, may have more value than Pageau this summer.
If the Islanders moved Pageau, in theory, MacLean would become the third-line centerman while Cizikas would line up on the fourth line, or vice versa.
If a team takes on Pageau's full cap hit, the Islanders would have over $12 million in space before signing any of their UFAs or RFAs to extensions.
The Islanders now have $6.125 million in space after the Maxim Tsyplakov signing ($950k ELC).
So, will we see Pageau moved at the NHL Draft?
Will he remain on the team with no clear-cut copy?
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