Two Islanders Lines Crack NHL’s Top-20 Expected Goals Percentage List; A Frustrating Statistic

The battle between expectations and reality is real on Long Island right now.

With the 2024-25 NHL season almost three weeks old, MoneyPuck.com released their list of the top 20 lines based on Expected Goal Percentages. 

What are Expected Goals, and how are they calculated?

This advanced statistic works by grading each shot based on certain metrics, such as shot distance, angle, and quality.

The scale is 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the shot was unlikely to go in, while 1 means the puck should have been in the back of the net. 

An in-tight shot could get a score of 0.8, while a shot from outside the blue line could get 0.1. 

What does Expected Goals Percentage mean?

On top of Expected Goals (xGF) for a player or a line, the Expected Goals Percentage takes in consideration the opponent's Expected Goals (xGA) when that player or line is on the ice.

To calculate, you take the Expected Goals For and divide it by the Expected Goals Against, and that gives you a percentage. 

Now that you have some background, let's dive into what MoneyPuck has told us. 

Two New York Islanders lines crack the list, with the top line of Anthony Duclair, Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal ranking 10th in xG%, and the second line of Maxim Tsyplakov, Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri sitting in 13th. 

Looking at the rankings, it shouldn't be much of a surprise to see the Tsyplakov-Nelson-Palmieri line that high. 

The trio has been their most consistent line to date this season, and each piece is among the team's top scorers. 

Nelson and Palmieri were each particularly sharp in the team's back-to-back, tallying a goal and assist in each game. Both have a grand total of four goals to sit in a tie for the team lead, with Palmieri leading in total points with seven. 

Of Nelson's six points, five have come at 5-on-5, with one of his two goals coming shorthanded. 

Of Palmieri's seven points, all have come at 5-on-5.

Tsyplakov may not have the goal output that the other two have, only boasting one in eight games, but he's gotten looks and has been a playmaker for his line, which has played a vital role in that line's xG%. 

He recorded two assists against the Florida Panthers on Saturday and sits in a tie for second on the team with four helpers. 

All five of his points have come at 5-on-5. 

As for the Duclair-Horvat-Barzal line, the latter two have been thrown a curveball following Duclair's lower-body injury.

Duclair made a decent first impression with his new linemates, tallying two goals and an assist -- one of his goals came on the power play --  after a strong preseason, but it's been a struggle for Horvat and Barzal to produce without him.  

Of Barzal's four points this season, one goal, and three assists, none of them have been true five-on-five situations. 

Two of his assists came on the power play, one helper came on Horvat's overtime winner against the New Jersey Devils, and the one goal was an empty netter. 

For Horvat, he boasts three goals and one assist for four points, with only one of them coming on a man-advantage and one of his goals coming in overtime. 

However, the two have developed chemistry since being put together in the second half of the 2022-23 season. 

With both players staying healthy for all of last season, Horvat recorded 33 goals and 35 assists for 68 points, setting career highs in the latter two categories. 

Barzal also had his best season since his rookie campaign, tallying 23 goals and 57 assists for 80 points. 

Even with the lack of goals, it's not to say the two haven't been pushing.

Whenever they're on the ice, they do get their share of decent looks but the results haven't come just yet. 

The chart suggests that the two players in question have the pedigree to break out of the funk, and the bounces will come. 

The Islanders are 3-3-2 through their first eight games, with the results from their second line playing to the level expected, if not a tad under given the abundance of chances missed in the games in which the Islanders have been shutout. 

But in the games where the Islanders have scored, they've been the driving force. 

However, the Islanders' best players need to make more of an impact at 5-on-5 and step up until Duclair gets back, which won't be for another 4-6 weeks. 

The Islanders return to action against the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday at UBS Arena. 

Puck drop is at 7:00 p.m., and the hope is that the team's top duo can get on the scoresheet and build from there.