NHL Salary Cap Predictions: How They Impact Islanders' Financial Future

The NHL and NHLPA have forecasted the salary cap ceiling and floor for the next three seasons.

Per the NHL, the salary cap ceiling is expected to become $95.5 million for 2025-26, $104 million for 2026-27, and $113.5 million for 2027-28:

This news comes following a recent report that the league's profits in 2023-24 were much higher than initially predicted.

For the New York Islanders, this projected rise in the salary cap will be crucial to maintaining and improving the current roster.

The 2024-25 salary-cap ceiling sits at $88 million, and when healthy, the Islanders have close to no wiggle room when constructing their roster.

Close to half of the roster is set for new contracts this offseason, led by unrestricted free agents Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri and restricted free agents Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov. 

Forwards Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee will also be off the books following the 2025-26 season, although neither is expected to garner an annual average higher than the current salaries.

While the Islanders will need this financial boost soon, it will also pay dividends for the team in the long run.

Without accounting for contract extensions, the Islanders are set to have close to $50 million in cap space in the 2026-27 season and over $61 million in cap space in the 2027-28 season.

While pending RFAs in Romanov, Holmstrom, and Dobson will surely decrease this number, the Islanders can now add to their roster rather than solely maintain the core.

Additionally, the long-term contracts recently handed out already look team-friendly.

Mathew Barzal's ($9.15 million AAV for eight years) and Ilya Sorokin's ($8.25 million AAV for eight years) salaries have gone from fair to below market value in cap percentage.

These deals accounted for roughly 10% of the salary cap ceiling when signed.

By the time they expire, that percentage will drop to around 8%, effectively making their current cap hits comparable to a $7.5 million annual value under the future cap.

Bo Horvat, Anthony Duclair, Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock, and Adam Pelech are also under contract through the anticipated salary cap boom, positioning the Islanders to carry several favorable deals for the years ahead.

The Islanders could be significant buyers in the free agent market with this money.

The 2025 Free Agent class could feature Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Brock Boeser.

In 2026, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Nick Schmaltz, and others will be in line for new contracts.

Of course, not all of these players will enter the open market, but a few will surely do so, paving the way for the Islanders to land a big fish to complement the current core.

Until then, the Islanders will have to wait for the money to clear, but with some exciting prospects on the way, the team will be well-positioned to capitalize on their newfound financial freedom and budding young core.

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