Islanders 2023-24 Projection: Three Keys & Scenarios

The New York Islanders bring back the same group they finished 2022-23 with, with a few additional signings with the hopes of more success in a tight Metropolitan Division.

The New York Islanders had plenty of familiar faces when training camp began back in September. But there's so much more to the Islanders just "running things back" narrative.

KEVIN here, a predictive learning model created by Rachel Doerrie, has the Islanders fighting for a wild-card spot. 

1. Carolina Hurricanes

2. New Jersey Devils

3. New York Rangers

4. Pittsburgh Penguins

5. New York Islanders

6. Washington Capitals

7. Columbus Blue Jackets

8. Philadelphia Flyers

NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Last year: 42-31-9, 4th in the Metropolitan Division (lost in the first round to the Carolina Hurricanes)

Projected: 5th in Metro, second wild-card spot.

Keys to the Season

1. Bo Horvat & Mathew Barzal click: The Islanders got snubbed of seeing just how dynamic Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal could be down the stretch for the Islanders in 2022-23 due to an injury to Barzal. But now, back healthy, Barzal seems more confident than ever, and the two have been clicking, with Horvat being more of the playmaker so far in preseason and during training camp. The Islanders have been longing for a true first line for years, and this could be the year that finally comes to fruition. 

2. Power Play Turnaround: The Islanders' power play was third-worst in the NHL last season, operating at 15.8 percent. It was a significant reason why the Islanders needed all 82 games to make the playoffs. Their 1-for-18 stretch in the postseason is why they failed to surpass the Carolina Hurricanes. With Barzal back healthy, which will take less pressure off quarterback Noah Dobson, there's no reason why the power play can't be middle of the pack this season. 

3. Playing Fast: One of the Islanders' biggest flaws last season was transitioning the puck. A lack of quick thinking in the defensive zone led to too many turnovers, which meant less time for forwards in the offensive zone. With more than one player now with raw speed with the acquisitions of Pierre Engvall, Horvat, and Julien Gauthier, every line has the potential to have some speed. Once the Islanders get caught playing a slow game, their defensive structure has to be flawless, and that's not likely the case, given some question marks on the backend. 

Most-Likely Scenario: The Islanders finish in the same spot they did a season ago and enter the postseason as underdogs like they always have. 

Worst-Case Scenario: The Islanders' offense struggles and netminder Ilya Sorokin has to be relied upon heavily down the stretch. Missing the playoffs would likely mean head coach Lane Lambert is gone and could also mean general manager Lou Lamoriello joins him.