Why the Islanders Starting Varlamov In Game Five Isn't Crazy

Here's why the New York Islanders starting Semyon Varlamov in Game 5, with elimination on the line, is not a crazy idea.

The New York Islanders would not be participating in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs if it wasn't for netminder Ilya Sorokin. 

That's not up for debate. 

He bailed the Islanders out left and right and quite frankly deserves some Hart votes for his work.

And although Sorokin was not stellar in their Game 2 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, he is not the reason the Islanders are staring down elimination, down 3-1 in the series.

But that doesn't mean that Islanders head coach Lane Lambert should stick with him for Game 5.

Sorokin has not been elite this series, owning a .910 SV% with a 2.96 GAA through four games, a smaller sample size than his regular season workload where he posted a .924 SV% and a 2.34 GAA in 62 games. 

Sorokin played all four regular-season games against the Hurricanes this season, posting a .911 SV%., with a 2.79 GAA. The Hurricanes knew how to beat him, and Sorokin knew the Hurricanes' tendencies. 

And there's no question Sorokin had to start the series given the season he just had, specifically his play down the stretch to help get New York into the postseason. But his regular season performance has eclipsed his playoff showing through four games. 

Now that shouldn't be the deciding factor, given this version of the Hurricanes -- but it's turned out to be that way thanks to an abysmal power-play, and a struggling penalty kill.

That brings us to Semyon Varlamov, the veteran backstop who has watched his counterpart start the last 12 games. 

There's a reason Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello kept Varlamov -- a pending unrestricted netminder -- through the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline.

The answer was that the Islanders would need both goaltenders down the stretch.

Varlamov made three appearances post-deadline. They were all losses, but in those decisions, the Islanders failed to show up.

If he was trusted to play when the Islanders were desperate for wins, he can be trusted now with the season on the line. The Islanders need to throw a curveball at Carolina, especially as visitors coming into a hostile, rowdy PNC Arena.

They have yet to face Varlamov in the series and have not faced him since Apr. 24, 2022, where he stopped 29 of 32 in a 5-2 loss. 

The Hockey News asked Lambert during Monday's media availability if he was thinking of making a change in goal for Game 5.

"If there was ever a thought of making a change, I wouldn't tell you that," Lambert said.

Fair enough.

In the Islanders' back-to-back trips to the semi-finals (2020, 2021), Varlamov played an instrumental role.

He started 20 of the Islanders' 22 playoff games in 2020, owning a .921 SV% with a 2.14 GAA. 

The following run, Varlamov played in 14 of the Islanders' 17 playoff games, playing to a .922 SV% with a 2.56 GAA. 

Advancing past the first round, beating the Pittsburgh Penguins in six, where both Varlamov and Sorokin split the series, Varlamov was elite in their upset of the Boston Bruins, finishing them off in six.

Tampa was Tampa -- nothing more needs to be said there.

Varlamov has the playoff experience, especially being relied upon in big games against those elite opponents. 

The Hurricanes are not elite.

Varlamov owns a .925 SV% with a 2.35 GAA in 13 career starts against Carolina. 

Where have we seen coaches go away from their clear no. 1 netminders in critical postseason moments?

Here's a few.

In 2013, Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma started Marc-Andre Fleury against the New York Islanders in Game 1, in which he shut the door. But after allowing 11 goals over the next three games, looking anything like his regular-season self, Sullivan made the decision to go to veteran Tomas Vokoun.

If Bylsma had not made the goaltender change from his guy to the 14-year NHL vet, they likely do not get past the Islanders.

We have already seen head coaches during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs make vital goaltending decisions.

After the New Jersey Devils dropped their first two games to the New York Rangers, losing 5-1 in both, head coach Lindy Ruff decided to start rookie netminder Akira Schmid over Vitek Vanecek, who was exceptional in the regular season, proving to be one of the strongest offseason signings across the NHL.

Schmid stopped 35 of 36 before Dougie Hamilton scored to win Game 3 for New Jersey in overtime. That series is now 2-1 Rangers, but the Devils have life.

On Sunday, when the Edmonton Oilers found themselves down 3-0 after one, head coach Jay Woodcroft elected to pull Calder candidate Stuart Skinner in favor of supposed-to-be-starter turned backup Jack Campbell. 

The Oilers came all the way back before winning 5-4 in overtime, with Campbell stopping 27 of 28, to tie the series at 2-2. 

With the season on the line, what will Lane Lambert do? Does he go with the goaltender who got them to this point or does he go with the veteran who has been relied upon in this situation before?

We will get our answer Tuesday morning when the Islanders take the ice for their final skate before Game 5.