JG Pageau [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-upcoming-milestones] is the type of player every coach loves to have, and he was especially that last season. He was a true Swiss Army knife, seeing time at all strengths and even playing throughout the lineup. Offensively, he posted 42 points – the second-highest total of his New York Islanders [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders] career – as well as 14 goals, the second-highest total of his Islanders career. He logged 127 minutes on the power play – the sixth most among Islander forwards – as well as 135 minutes on the penalty kill – the most among Islander forwards. The Ottawa native started the season alongside Anders Lee and Simon Holmstrom, but ultimately played just 85 minutes with them all season once injuries piled up. He would go on to spend time in the top six on Bo Horvat’s wing, as well as time in the bottom of the lineup with Casey Cizikas and Maxim Tsyplakov. Patrick Roy used Pageau to shut down top opponents and win key offensive zone faceoffs with the Islanders down late in games. He ultimately set his single-season career high 59.4% faceoff win rate. While the eye test told a promising story, the advanced metrics did, too. With Pageau on the ice at 5v5, the Islanders outscored opponents 43-36, good for a 54.43 goals percentage – the sixth highest among forwards, while his 54.44% on-ice expected goals percentage ranked third among forwards, according to Natural Stat Trick. His on-ice 2.55 goals for per 60 minutes was the highest single-season total of his career, while his on-ice 2.49 expected goals against per 60 minutes was the lowest of his career on Long Island. It is easy to overlook a player like Pageau, but his consistent play as an aggressive, checking center who contributes in all aspects of the game should not be taken for granted. Image [https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdKEaxIedvY7YcHb0gMLrD_D38u7rNUYdEsHfddevsmYuYpbwvNEEZIHYVA8lRAPRgrTSPMVYDA1wVf3G9QijOWpazeVrJ1-GcZa9wUJ-c7nCXWGAGl9l0DZr21WkuYmGX4-T6dBQ?key=Kjm09uxPziBmm3pmmwUROQ] Final Verdict: A- You really couldn’t expect much more from Pageau. He posted impressive offensive totals, bounced around the lineup, effectively killed penalties, and shut down top opponents on a routine basis. Heading into 2025-26, the Islanders will need to see more of it to persevere in the playoff race. Pageau is expected to begin the season as the third-line center, though 20-year-old Calum Ritchie could change that. Ritchie, who was acquired by the Islanders at the 2025 deadline in a deal for Brock Nelson, is expected to fight for an NHL roster spot out of camp. He played seven games with the Colorado Avalanche before returning to the OHL and leading the Oshawa Generals to a defeat in the league’s championship series. Ritchie is widely viewed as one of, if not the, most NHL-ready prospects in the Islanders’ system, and while the Bridgeport Islanders are led by a new coaching staff, Ritchie most certainly wants to make the NHL roster out of camp. If he does, Pageau’s outlook will change, since Ritchie is likely to take his role as the third-line center. The Islanders roster lacks top-six, right-handed wingers with Mat Barzal’s return to wing, so it is possible Pageau earns a spot in the top six. He could also remain the third-line center with Ritchie joining his wing, though the Islanders would likely prefer to keep their young center in his natural position. It also must be considered the Islanders now have a surplus of forwards with the additions of Jonathan Drouin and Maxim Shabanov, as well as 2024 offseason addition, Anthony Duclair, expected to join the team in training camp. As a result, it is difficult to forecast exactly how the lineup will shake out, but the most likely outcome will have Ritchie open the season in Bridgeport and put two of Simon Holmstrom, Anders Lee, Duclair, and Shabanov on Pageau’s wings. Lee, and especially Holmstrom, have experience alongside Pageau. The three opened the 2024-25 season together but were quickly separated when Barzal and Duclair sustained injuries in back-to-back games. However, in their 87 minutes together, they outscored opponents 4-1. Over the past three seasons, the sample size slightly increases to 147 minutes, where they outscored opponents 5-3. At 24 years old and fresh off a breakout year that set career highs in goals (20), assists (25), and points (45), Holmstrom is likely aiming to break through into the top-six. While Pageau and Holmstrom have found great success together, outsourcing opponents 17-10 with a 53.7 xG% at 5v5 last season, Holmstrom’s elite wrist shot could slot well alongside Barzal. Rest assured, Holmstrom and Pageau will most definitely reunite on the penalty kill. As a result, Pageau could open the season alongside Lee and Shabanov if Duclair brings his speed to Barzal’s wing. While Shabanov stands just 5-foot-8 and has never played in the NHL, a third line of Lee, Pageau, and Shabanov could cause chaos for opponents with an emphasis on driving the crease and putting shots on net. Putting together another 40+ point campaign would be a win for the Islanders, but Pageau is likely to finish 2025-26 with 12-16 goals and 32-38 points, on par with his historical average on Long Island. Image [https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfxuXawwKUtzA4v2zlfDDQaJ9tNG2ZGL4hiLg5hx_M7zPv1u5Svn3PC3AL3JZNapnREwgvsSBYWFS8CVY6p_026TXYU9cTZ3R5DyyCFIPZgJWJFzIXa7rlAqmU0UHBp3HmsXZLoOg?key=Kjm09uxPziBmm3pmmwUROQ] CoreNHL’s model projects Pageau to provide an estimated $4.0 million of value in 2025-26. Latest Outlooks: Islanders Outlook: Mathew Barzal Profile & Projection [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/a7a60748-132e-459f-87f2-b93ef38b043d.webp] Islanders Outlook: Mathew Barzal Profile & Projection The 2024-25 season was anything but easy for <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders" target="_blank">New York Islanders</a> forward <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-mathew-barzal-remaining-patient-during-rehab-process">Mathew Barzal</a>. [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-outlook-mathew-barzal-profile-projection] Islanders Outlook: Kyle Palmieri Profile & Projection [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/f52a3d72-976a-4140-840f-d528bd583ee3.jpeg] Islanders Outlook: Kyle Palmieri Profile & Projection <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/kyle-palmieris-production-with-without-brock-nelson-key-impact-on-islanders-offense">Kyle Palmieri</a> had one of the steadiest seasons among <a href="http://thn.com/isles">New York Islanders</a> forwards in 2024-25. [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-outlook-kyle-palmieri-profile-projection] Islanders Outlook: Bo Horvat Profile & Projection [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/61d1af68-2b52-445a-8594-62875a69c7bc.webp] Islanders Outlook: Bo Horvat Profile & Projection When the <a href="http://thn.com/isles">New York Islanders</a> lost <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-mathew-barzal-s-message-to-the-shoot-crowd">Mathew Barzal</a> and other key players to injury, <a href="https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-bo-horvat-to-miss-remainder-of-world-championships-for-team-canada">Bo Horvat</a> stepped up with timely goals and clutch performances. [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/islanders-outlook-bo-horvat-profile-projection]
