Kyle Palmieri [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/new-york-islanders/latest-news/kyle-palmieris-production-with-without-brock-nelson-key-impact-on-islanders-offense] had one of the steadiest seasons among New York Islanders [http://thn.com/isles] forwards in 2024-25. He finished the season third on the Islanders in both goals (24) and points (48), and was one of just three players to appear in all 82 games (Casey Cizikas, Anders Lee). Palmieri’s strong year built on the momentum of a stellar second half in 2023-24, which began after Patrick Roy took over as head coach on January 20, 2024. Since Roy’s arrival, Palmieri has played in all 119 games – the only Islander to do so – sharing the team in goals at 43 with Bo Horvat, and ranking second in points (77), behind only Horvat’s 83. Since arriving at the 2021 trade deadline, Palmieri has been a steady contributor, known for his speed, aggressive forechecking, and willingness to drive the net to win puck battles. The Smithtown, Long Island native spent most of the past two seasons on Brock Nelson’s wing, forming one of the most reliable second lines in recent Islanders history. Together, the duo outscored opponents 73-67 at 5v5 play during that stretch. Following the Nelson trade, Palmieri’s point production understandably dropped, but the underlying metrics tell another story. Prior to March 6, Palmieri was producing at a rate of 0.97 goals, 0.56 primary points, and 0.8 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5v5, according to Natural Stat Trick. Following the trade, he went without a 5v5 primary assist and produced just 0.63 goals per 60 minutes. However, the expected metrics remained similar, yet his on-ice shooting percentage dropped to 8.46%, nearly 2% lower than in games prior to the deadline. This decline was expected, as Nelson — with a career shooting percentage of 14.2% — has long been one of the Islanders’ most reliable goal scorers. When your linemates don’t score as much, your assists drop, too. Considering Palmieri was also playing with a new center for the first time in two years after the deadline, it is difficult to fault him for the drop in production. Beyond his offensive contributions, Palmieri’s 2024-25 season offered several other positives. He earned a role on the penalty kill for the first time as an Islander, logging the fourth-most shorthanded minutes among forwards. Not only did he handle the responsibility, he thrived in it, finishing with the fewest goals against (8.38) and the second-fewest expected goals against (8.82) per 60 minutes among forwards. Palmieri was only added to the penalty kill out of necessity after injuries thinned the Islanders’ forward group. With Emil Heineman now in the mix, he will likely lose that role in 2025-26, but Patrick Roy and assistant coach Bob Boughner, who is expected to oversee the penalty kill, will certainly appreciate having another reliable option available. Like Horvat and other top forwards, Palmieri’s 5v5 responsibilities grew more challenging as injuries mounted. In 2023-24, he started roughly 5% more of his shifts in the offensive zone than in 2024-25. He also faced tougher competition. According to PuckIQ, Palmieri logged around 25 more seconds per game against “elite” opponents in 2024-25 than the year prior. That difference may sound small, but stretched across an 82-game season, it adds up. PuckIQ’s criteria for ‘elite’ players include maintaining points/60 > 2.21 (all game states), time on ice per game > 75th percentile, relative corsi > 40th percentile, and relative dangerous fenwick > 40th percentile. This leaves around 60 players in this category per season. All things considered, Palmieri delivered a strong 2024-25 campaign. Despite losing his most familiar linemate at the deadline and shouldering added responsibilities amid a pileup of injuries, he still produced his second consecutive 20-goal, 20-assist season while appearing in all 82 games. The Islanders could hardly ask for more, and they would gladly welcome a similar stat line in 2025-26. Image [https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7Z4hCDp8orNvMHdmcwlXHhbd00Zc2ohngCKDMBCMtGD8mHjUEWlvW782utFlBgLpjA3WNHTdSHUgRP7PdQRQxLiml00bRPDdMecbCcCNU7lw3h6pofx2Jr_vTGTjKI0HxVJGR?key=GLrolDJ9k2BkwwGjlbmZPw] Final Verdict: B+ Looking ahead to 2025-26, Palmieri is expected to line up alongside Horvat, a combination that has the potential to work well. Not only will Palmieri be reunited with a proven goal-scoring center, but past results show signs of chemistry. In 368 minutes together at 5v5 last season, the Islanders were outscored 19-15, yet the expected goals tilted slightly in their favor at 17.11 to 16.5. Regardless of how much stock you put into advanced metrics, both players are established finishers. If their on-ice shooting percentage of 8.52% rebounds closer to the league average of about 10%, the production will follow. It’s also worth noting Palmieri generated more scoring chances and posted a higher on-ice expected goals rate at 5v5 with Horvat than with Nelson in 2024-25, another sign the duo could click moving forward. Now, let’s get back to the basics. In 2024-25, the Islanders sustained multiple long-term injuries to impact forwards, and the entire lineup paid the price. Heading into 2025-26, everyone is healthy, and the depth has improved. Palmieri is expected to settle in alongside Horvat, where the pair should benefit from slightly more favorable matchups. Health is never guaranteed, but if the Islanders avoid major setbacks, it’s easy to envision Palmieri producing another 20-goal, 40-point season. Image [https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeWzUwryPLX0AFR_jMJnJAWmaqR0r_aNK4MoCb2JMUCwYYoxEpqVDBkQIg1LagW1aueEGkQtAZScltEt7-HkN197Qg4U1iB5INaLS2jEeNzROhw5Tuzs9rONasIVBp4DBvJh0vZ7A?key=GLrolDJ9k2BkwwGjlbmZPw] CoreNHL’s model projects Palmieri to provide an estimated $4.6 million of value in 2025-26.
