How Karlsson Trade Impacts Senators and Eastern Playoff Picture

The Pittsburgh Penguins are suddenly a far bigger threat to Ottawa's goal of returning to the playoffs next spring.

It generally takes at least five years to assess which team wins a major trade in the NHL. This includes the recent three-way deal involving the San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens and the Pittsburgh Penguins which returned three-time Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson back to the Eastern Conference.

The Sharks and Canadiens are both in a rebuild while the Penguins are trying to squeeze the last bit of championship pedigree out of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.

Looking at the deal and determining who won or lost, there may be losers who weren't even involved in the trade.

At first glance, it's hard to imagine that this trade benefits anyone in the East for the upcoming season.

Yes, Montreal gets an upgrade on defense with the addition of Jeff Petry. However, this is likely to be an asset to be moved at the deadline in 2024 or even 2025 rather than to have them in a playoff hunt. Casey DeSmith is a capable 1B goalie in the NHL who creates a bit of a log jam in the crease with Jake Allen and Samuel Montembeault. In the end, this just seems like smart asset management by Kent Hughes.

For the remaining 15 teams in the Eastern Conference and, in particular, the Ottawa Senators, this trade has very tangible impacts for the coming season.

Clearly, Karlsson still has enough tread on his tires to play at the level he was at when he won two Norris Trophies in Ottawa. His health concerns seem behind him at this point.

Assuming Kris Letang can also remain healthy, this trade would seem to give the Penguins potentially the most lethal power play in the league. It’s hard to imagine which of those two will be the puck transporter and which will be the offside shooter.

Combining those two with Crosby and Malkin along with any one of Bryan Rust, Reilly Smith, Rickard Rakell or even Jeff Carter for some net front presence seems like a power play that could rival the Edmonton Oilers for output.

Normally, three on three overtime is two forwards and a defenseman. It’s hard to see that always being the case in Pittsburgh with the likes of Letang and Karlsson who can push the pace and still recover quickly enough to fix their own mistakes.

Should the Senators worry? For this coming season, absolutely. Before this trade, the Penguins looked like a team that was trying unsuccessfully to wring water out of dry towel to win another championship.

Now, they have served notice that they intend to be there in April, May and June.

It’s not all doom and gloom. The Senators might not have a Karlsson and Letang. However, between Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Jacob Chychrun, they have the equivalent of Karlsson and Letang offensively with a better defensive zone presence.

Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle are a pretty nice two-headed monster to counteract the Pens' one/two punch.

The difference may come down to the crease with the newly acquired Joonas Korpisalo compared to Tristan Jarry. Jarry has yet to live up to the praise and promise since he won the Memorial Cup with the Edmonton Oil Kings in 2014. The Penguins re-signed the 28-year-old for five years this offseason while the Senators signed the 29-year-old Korpisalo for four years.

Karlsson doesn’t make anyone better defensively with the noted exception of when he has the puck. He lives by the mantra that “the best defence is a better offence”.

Clearly, this trade shifts the balance of power in the East. The Senators are eyeing the playoffs this season and, as recently as a week ago, the Pens didn’t look like threats to that aspiration.

The times, they are a changin’.

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