With the second-worst PK in the league, is it time for the Senators to switch away from their diamond formation?
The Ottawa Senators' penalty kill is the topic du jour right now in the nation's capital.
Allowing nine power play goals in 20 opportunities will do that to a city.
That the Senators' 55 percent success rate is not the league's worst rate is unimaginable, but the Columbus Blue Jackets own that distinction with a league-worst 53.3 percent success rate.
It is not just the results on special teams that have created consternation; it is the passivity of the Senators' penalty kill that has bred contempt for its reliance on a diamond structure.
It is a formation the team utilized exclusively last season, finishing with the league's 19th-highest-ranked unit. It was not a particularly flattering performance, but the unit finished the regular season strong by giving up just three power play goals in 19 opportunities over their last nine games, fuelling optimism that it was peaking at the right time.
*Narrator's voice*
It didn't.
In their first-round matchup, the Toronto Maple Leafs' power play ran roughshod over the Senators, scoring five goals in their first nine opportunities, which helped stake the Leafs to a quick 3-0 series lead.
The Senators killed all seven of Toronto's opportunities between games three and four, allowing them to crawl back into the series. But, ultimately, the Leafs scored another power play goal on their only opportunity in game six, which helped them ice the series.
Having a middling penalty kill, compounded by its postseason struggles, fuelled intrigue because the offseason represented an opportunity for the organization to self-reflect and analyze what the league's more successful teams were doing.
When the Senators announced the addition of a respected veteran penalty killer in Lars Eller, there was hope that the organization had identified and was trying to remedy an area of need through personnel changes or the adoption of new strategies.
Through the preseason, the diamond returned, but those games were meaningless. Could the organization be avoiding showcasing any structural changes to their rivals before the start of the season?
Nope.
The Senators have continued to use it through their first five games, and it has been a struggle.
According to Natural Stat Trick's penalty kill data, only the Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals have allowed a higher rate of goals than the Senators.
Columbus Blue Jackets: 18.67 GA/60
Washington Capitals: 17.78 GA/60
Ottawa Senators: 16.85 GA/60
The Senators have an expected goals allowed rate of 8.60, so their actual goal rate is almost double what it should be based on shot quality.
Head coach Travis Green noted ahead of last night's game against the Seattle Kraken that poor luck has contributed to the penalty kill's numbers.
"It's been four games," the head coach emphasized when asked about the frustrations of the unit's inconsistency. "There have been a few breakdowns.
"There have also been a few lucky goals that found their way into the net. Look at the one off the back wall yesterday. You look at the triple-deflected goal on the third one."
Green is not wrong; bad luck has inevitably contributed to the team's performance. Its goaltenders have also struggled to bail their teammates out when defensive breakdowns have occurred.
I just do not understand a loyalty to a structure that was relatively mediocre last season and has continued to yield middling underlying numbers now.
In terms of the volume of shots and chances the Senators give up on the penalty kill, most of the statistics trend toward the middle of the league.
- Shots allowed per 60 (CA/60): 99.22, 16th
- Shots on goal allowed per 60 (SA/60): 58.03, 23rd
- Goals allowed per 60 (GA/60): 16.85, 30th
- Expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60): 8.60, 18th
Those numbers do not represent a significant departure from last season's stats. The Senators ranked 19th in shots allowed per 60 (CA/60), 28th in shots allowed per 60 (SA/60), 18th in goals allowed per 60 (GA/60), and 25th in expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60) per Natural Stat Trick.
Heat maps of where the Senators give up their shots on the power play help illustrate where the defensive coverage breaks down.
In the diamond formation, each player is responsible for a specific area in the defensive zone.
Last year, one Senators defenceman described the system to me as a series of pistons where players stretch into specific areas to pressure the puck carrier, but always come back to the middle of the ice to defend the options there.
When it is operating efficiently, a player puts pressure on the puck carrier. As that happens, a second defending player has to make a read and preemptively pressure an adjacent offensive player before the puck is moved to him. Doing so takes time and space away from the attacking team, aiming to create poor decisions and ideally turnovers.
The diamond also relies on congesting the middle of the ice, where the Senators try to take away passing lanes and the bumper play, which often affords the opponent more time and space on the outside. It dares opposing players to take shots from a distance that a goaltender should handle with ease.
From the heat map, it is easy to see that in the first five games, the Senators are giving up those low-percentage shots from a distance, as indicated by the red heat indicators at three distinct points on the blue line.
Unfortunately, the sea of red around the Senators' goal highlights the drawbacks of their penalty kill unit right now.
The Senators often break down when the outside diamond defenders get caught too high, and the opposition gets the puck down below the Senators' top three skaters in the zone. When that occurs, it puts the Senators at risk of two-on-ones down low, where the opposition's skilled forwards have the puck in a high-danger area.
These instances put a lot of pressure on the goaltender to play the puck carrier and make the initial stop. Similarly, the defenceman covering the low slot must make snap decisions on whether to pressure the puck carrier or cover the passing lanes around the vicinity of the net.
The blue area on the heat map indicates that the Senators are doing a fine job of clearing out the high slot, but the red around the net front and bottom of the circles is problematic. It shows that they are giving up a relatively high volume of chances down low.
What is frustrating about the Senators' penalty kill is that the Nashville game demonstrated the unit can be effective when it adds controlled aggressiveness and smart puck pressure.
After that game, Travis Green emphasized his happiness with their efforts and attributed their success to the units' aggressiveness and assertiveness. They are dynamics that the coaching staff obviously values, but for whatever reason, they fail to carry over from one game to the next consistently. Hell, they rarely carry over from one penalty kill to the next.
When that happens, the frustrations understandably mount, and the attention given to the penalty kill is justifiably put in the spotlight, not just by the fans.
"I know (the penalty kill)'s a hot topic here," Green acknowledged while addressing the media on Thursday morning. "It's a hot topic in our room."
Oh, to be a fly on the wall for those conversations.
It is encouraging to hear that there is discourse between the players and the coaching staff. The organization should be exploring every avenue for self-improvement and working the margins wherever possible - especially in the absence of one of the team's best players, Brady Tkachuk.
At some point, however, if the penalty kill does not markedly improve, change will inevitably have to come.
Until it does, the diamond formation will continue to be a "hot topic."
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