The Ottawa Senators have begun the new season with a less-than-impressive 2-4 record, but at least their fan base has had the Blue Jays’ run to the World Series to distract them from the rough start. By many metrics, not the least of which is their position in the standings, the start of the Senators’ season has been a disaster. Two wins in their first six games already have them tied for last in the East, and it looks like the momentum from finally breaking through to the playoffs has all but dissipated. Travis Green speak about specific team struggles in Saturday's difficult loss to the Islanders. But what if you told a Senators fan before the season started that six games in (as of Oct 20): - Shane Pinto would be leading the league in goals with seven? - The Sens would be ranked fourth in the league in Corsi at 56.01 percent? - They'd be sixth in the league at expected goals for at 54.05% at 5-on-5? - Leading the league in faceoff winning percentage at 61.5%? - Top ten in the league on the power play and shots for per game? - They would be in the top half for goals for and shots against? - New addition Jordan Spence would be a plus player, and scoring at a point per game pace? Free of further context, you’d see those facts and start booking your playoff tickets and thinking about home-ice advantage in the first round. Instead… Despite those encouraging stats, the start of the season has been marred by a mix of poor individual play, bad luck, terrible penalty killing, and unsustainably bad goaltending. Instead of noticing the aforementioned positives, it’s much easier to see how the Senators are: - Not banking points in October, with a November that has not been historically kind to the team right around the corner. - Dead last in the league in goals against above expected at 10.19, nearly double Calgary’s 31st-ranked rating of 5.35. - Allowing an average of 5.00 goals against, tied for last with the lowly San Jose Sharks, and their 30 goals against are five goals worse than Calgary for dead last. - Without their heart-and-soul captain Brady Tkachuk for six to eight weeks after thumb surgery, following a nasty cross-check in the back by Nashville’s Roman Josi – a classy veteran who should have known better. - Brutal on the penalty kill, ranked 31st (60.9%), a problem exacerbated by being the seventh-most penalized team in the NHL so far. Other concerns include newer additions like Dylan Cozens’ ugly -7 rating in six games, or Fabian Zetterlund’s concerning lack of production of any kind (one assist in six games). The tandem of Linus Ullmark and Leevi Meriläinen has been the worst in the league. Ullmark’s .848 save percentage and 3.99 goals-against average after five games are bottom five in the league. But does anyone really believe that Ullmark will sustain those poor numbers over an 82-game season, just as he starts his new $8.25 million-a-year contract, two years removed from winning the Vezina Trophy? Meriläinen had a single disastrous outing in net after a lousy pre-season, which is certainly concerning, but there’s loads of runway to stabilize there as well. Plenty of top goalies around the league, like Dustin Wolf, Jacob Markström, Ilya Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Filip Gustavsson are off to similar starts, and no one thinks they'll retain those bottom-of-the-league trajectories either. While many are already smashing that panic button, there are still 76 games left to play. We don’t worry about how the Florida Panthers are 3–4, and few seem concerned that the only team below Ottawa in the Eastern standings is the usually mighty Tampa Bay Lightning, who’ve only got one win in six tries. Fans would be frustrated, but not ready to throw in the towel, if this six-game stretch happened in the middle of January, with the team above water. It can be tough to see the forest when the early-season trees appear so large. It’s also early enough to play what-if scenarios, examining key moments in individual games that would have totally changed the outlook and narrative. What if the goalies made a few more saves? What if the penalty kill stopped a few more chances against? What if Tkachuk didn't get hurt and had been available the last few games? What if Nashville's Juuse Saros didn't play out of his mind, or benefit from a sketchy goalie interference call? What if the Sens didn’t give up three separate leads and a totally preventable last minute game-winner against the Islanders? What if they actually showed up against the Sabres? If just one of those games had bounced the Senators’ way, they’d be .500 and well within range of the playoffs. What’s gone wrong so far is fixable — with minor adjustments, focus on quality defensive play, and a few more saves and bounces going the other way. Things have a way of regressing to the mean, and no one needs to tell these players or coaches what needs to be done to get out of this. However, because it’s early and a lot of the numbers look ugly, it’s easy to get sucked into the narrative that this start is going to be reflective of the season to come. It likely isn’t. Hot streaks come and go, just as easily as losing ones do. This is an organization that took major pride in the steps it took last season and didn’t suddenly get collective amnesia during the offseason. There’s plenty of runway left for the Senators, and a few wins will make this rough start a distant memory. Until then, in a league filled with parity, the line between success and disaster can be a fine one indeed, especially this early in the new season. More Sens headlines at the Hockey News Ottawa: Senators Surprisingly Send Merilainen to Belleville After One Start [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/trading-places-ottawa-senators-loan-merilainen-to-ahl-belleville-call-up-sogaard] Travis Green Offers Blunt Criticism After Disappointing Islanders Loss [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/travis-green-after-senators-5-4-loss-to-islanders-a-lot-of-things-we-took-pride-in-last-year-we-weren-t-good-at-tonight] Tkachuk Has Successful Thumb Surgery And Will Miss 6-8 Weeks [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/ottawa-senators-brady-tkachuk-had-thumb-surgery-and-will-miss-6-8-weeks] Sens Call Up Kaliyev As Tkachuk Goes On IR [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/senators-place-brady-tkachuk-on-ir-recall-forward-arthur-kaliyev] https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/senators-place-brady-tkachuk-on-ir-recall-forward-arthur-kaliyevhttps://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/senators-place-brady-tkachuk-on-ir-recall-forward-arthur-kaliyevSenators Lose Sebrango, Claimed Off Waivers By Florida [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/senators-lose-defenseman-donovan-sebrango-claimed-off-waivers-by-florida] An Early Glance At The Senators' Goaltending Pipeline [https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/latest-news/prospect-check-in-a-glance-at-the-ottawa-senators-goaltending-pipeline]
