The Pittsburgh Penguins headed into their Christmas break on the outside of the playoff picture yet again. How does the 2024-25 season stack up against the previous years in the salary cap era?
The Pittsburgh Penguins went into their Christmas break in an unfamiliar spot during the salary cap era: outside the playoffs. If the team doesn't get hot down the stretch, it risks missing out on the postseason for the third consecutive season, a fire during the Sidney Crosby era.
Although no one actually gave Pittsburgh a chance in their pre-season ranking, they have the NHL's 10th-best offensive numbers with 111 goals scored. However, one of the biggest reasons they are just one game over .500 is because they have given up the most goals in the league at 131.
Unfortunately, that statistic alone is the second-worst total in the salary cap, coming close to matching the goals against total of the 2005-06 season, when the Penguins limped into their Christmas break with an 8-19-7 record and a goal differential of minus-46 at 92-138.
Interestingly, Pittsburgh's 16 wins this season rank among the worst campaign starts in the salary cap and Mike Sullivan era, which began just 13 days before Christmas in 2015.
Furthermore, last year, the second year without a playoff berth, the Penguins went into their holiday break with a 15-13-6 record with 33 points. Even with a boost in scoring, they celebrated Christmas with a 16-15-5 record and just 37 points.
They earned 37.5% of their final regular season points before Dec. 25, 2023, and missed the postseason by three points. We don't know what their final point total will be today, but they are sitting behind the Ottawa Senators by a single point, while the Senators have two games in hand.
Surprisingly, one of the reasons behind this season's hiccups is 15 losses in 36 games, the fourth-most defeats in the salary cap era before Christmas. Ultimately, things are pretty different than they were a decade ago when the Penguins rolled into their break with a 22-7-5 record and 49 points in 2014-15.
Additionally, thanks to a decade and a half of playoff appearances and 11 years of 100-point campaigns, the 2024-25 Penguins are behind their average totals at Christmas.
In the past 18 seasons, except the 2012-13 and 2020-21 seasons, Pittsburgh has averaged 35 pre-Christmas games with 20 wins, 12 losses, and four ties. They usually score 109 goals and give up 98, with a goal differential of plus-12.
They are ahead of the curve regarding scoring, but their goaltending has had its fair share of struggles in the first three months, which has had a trickle-down effect on the overall record.
Considering the average number of points needed to gain a wild card spot last season was 96, the Penguins are going to need to come up with close to 60 points in the final 46 games to have a shot at staying in the race and earning their first postseason appearance since 2022.
