How Many 20-Goal Scorers Will the Penguins Have in 2024-25?

Without Jake Guentzel, scoring needs to come from elsewhere up and down the roster

When the Pittsburgh Penguins traded goal-scoring winger Jake Guentzel to the Carolina Hurricanes last spring, it had potentially dealt a devastating blow to a team that already had trouble finding the back of the net.

But for the new crop of Penguins' top-six forwards, that isn't necessarily the case.

As it stands now, the Penguins' top-six figures to have some combination of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin, Michael Bunting, Drew O'Connor, and - possibly - a rookie in Rutger McGroarty. Five of those players have multiple 20-goal seasons under their belt, with Crosby (16) and Malkin (15) leading the way.

What is the likelihood that each of these players scores 20? And will there be anyone else that comes close?

Likelihood to score 20+: Almost guaranteed. Barring health, there is no reason to suggest that Sidney Crosby will not be a 20-goal scorer for the 17th time in his NHL career. 

Over the past three seasons, Crosby has registered 31, 33, and 42 goals, and the two seasons prior were shortened due to the Covid-19 lockdown. The last time - and the only other time - that Crosby registered three consecutive seasons of 30 or more goals was 2008-11 during the prime of his career.

So there is literally no reason to suggest that he'll all of a sudden dip below 20 goals. This one is nearly a given, again, barring health.

Likelihood to score 20+: Very high. Like Crosby, Malkin's goal fortunes will be very health-dependent. But assuming he stays healthy, it is highly unlikely that Malkin won't score at least 20 goals. 

Over the past two seasons, he has registered 27 goals in each, which is his highest mark since 2017-18 (when he scored 42). Malkin dealt with generally unproductive and inconsistent linemates last season, but he found chemistry with Bunting and Rakell after Bunting was acquired as part of the Guentzel trade at the deadline.

Assuming that line stays healthy and intact, Malkin should hit 20 fairly easily.

Likelihood to score 20+: High. Rust has posted five consecutive seasons of 20 or more goals, with his career-high of 28 coming last season. Injuries are the biggest concern for Rust, who has never played a full 82-game season and has only played more than 70 games twice over the course of his 10-year career.

Age could be a factor as well, but, like Crosby and Malkin, assuming he stays healthy - and assuming he plays alongside Crosby the entire season - he's a pretty safe bet to hit the 20-goal plateau again.

Likelihood to score 20+: Moderately High.

It's no secret that Rakell had a down year last season. In 2023-24, it took him until December 27 to have more goals than goaltender Tristan Jarry on the season.

However, an early IR stint and playing through a shoulder injury in the second half likely hindered his shooting ability last season. Despite that, after his IR stint - from December onward - Rakell put up a 23-goal, 51-point pace.

He has scored more than 30 goals twice and 20-plus five times, and he developed some chemistry alongside Malkin and Bunting after the 2024 trade deadline. Expect a bounce-back season from Rakell in 2024-25.

Likelihood to score 20+: Likely, but not a given.

As mentioned earlier, Bunting found some chemistry alongside Malkin and Rakell after his arrival in Pittsburgh last season, registering six goals and 19 points in 21 games.

However, Bunting isn't really known for his goal-scoring. He's scored more than 20 goals twice over his five seasons, but over the past two years, a chunk of his goal production has come as the net-front presence on the power play. And the Penguins' power play has been notoriously anemic for the past two seasons.

With Rakell and Malkin, he will likely be the net-front, "garbage-goal" guy who picks up their loose change and defers more than he shoots. But there is definitely potential for his production to take a pretty big leap if that line continues to click.

A 20-goal season should happen, but it's not a given.

Likelihood to score 20+: Unlikely, but possible.

It will be interesting to see where O'Connor starts the season in the Penguins' lineup. Although he made for a good secondary player alongside Crosby and Rust after Guentzel was traded - scoring seven goals and 12 points in 19 games - O'Connor's style of play is probably most conducive to a third-line role.

But given the hole in the Penguins' top-six - and the uncertainty surrounding McGroarty's role at this juncture - it's likely that he begins the 2024-25 campaign with Crosby, at least to start.

If he gets an extended look there, he may reach 20 goals. But the Penguins have some options, so O'Connor hitting that plateau is murky, to say the least.

Likelihood to score 20+: Neutral. It's hard to predict McGroarty's ceiling without knowing whether or not he cracks the roster. If he does not break camp from the get-go, 20 goals is highly unlikely.

However, assuming he does break camp, it's a realistic possibility. Even if he starts the season on the Penguins' third line, his playmaking smarts, hockey IQ, physicality, and top-six pedigree almost make it certain that he will see time alongside Crosby.

McGroarty registered 34 goals and 91 points in 75 games with the University of Michigan. He profiles as the kind of winger Crosby has seen success with in the past. If he gets that opportunity, he may just hit that 20-goal mark.

"Wild Cards" to score 20+: Erik Karlsson, Lars Eller, Kevin Hayes

Outlook: The Penguins should have five 20-goal scorers on their roster this season, but I believe they will have six. Whether O'Connor or McGroarty slots in beside Crosby, either should be elevated by Crosby and Rust. If they split time on that line this season, it may not happen.

It's also not entirely out of the question for Karlsson to reach that mark if the power play can get going under new defensive/power play coach David Quinn, however unlikely.