In the second of a two-part analysis, we try and separate fact from fiction about home-ice advantage, and what it means to the Seattle Kraken
In the NHL playoffs, unlike in real estate, it's apparently NOT about "Location, Location, Location."
The Seattle Kraken tied for the fifth-most road wins (26) in the regular season, while tying for 20th at home with 20 victories. That trend has extended to the playoffs, with the Kraken winning 4 of 7 so far out of town, but going just 2-3 at Climate Pledge Arena.
Should fans be surprised by that? Perhaps not. A pair of researchers concluded that most supposed home-ice advantages never actually existed.
Behavioral economist Tobias Moskowitz and sportswriter L. Jon Wertheim published their findings in Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won.
"Playoff Loud" May Not Equal Playoff Wins
Seattle fans have responded to in-arena urging to get "Playoff Loud."Full-throated Kraken supporters at Climate Pledge Arena may want to skip the next paragraph.
As chicagobooks.edu wrote in its review, "Even taking into account crowd noise, Moskowitz and Wertheim were unable to find persuasive evidence that crowds on their own do anything to affect player performance."
Essentially, players don't much care whether they're cheered or booed, so long as they're not ignored.
The book also studied "road" games played in the same metro area, like when the Rangers play the Islanders. The result was no deviation in home ice advantage compared to teams which traveled long distances to play.
Similarly, the playing surface itself was found to have little influence on game outcomes.
The book did confirm one home team benefit: unconscious referee bias. On this point, The Athletic hockey writer Tarik El-Bashir agrees. "The officiating in hockey is the least consistent," he said in a WTEM radio interview. "It's such a fast game, and it's getting faster. Power plays increase the likelihood of an upset."
Tarik mentioned one other contributor working against playoff favorites. "It's played on ice! Guys fall, guys blow a wheel, the puck takes weird bounces. Because of the playing surface, random things occur."
Kraken Balance Succeeds Against Top Opposition
Another playoff surprise: the Kraken proved that star power isn't guaranteed to overwhelm a dogged blue-collar team. Using a "winning by committee" approach, Seattle bested Colorado's superior top-end talent - players such as Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar.
In the opening game in Dallas, the Kraken won despite four goals by Joe Pavelski.
Of course, top-end talent can't always be denied. Pavelski is up to seven goals in the series through five games. Roope Hintz is tied for the most playoff points with 18, and Jason Roberston recorded three assists in Thursday's 5-2 victory over Seattle.
Dallas leads the second round series, three games to two, and have won their last two over Seattle on home ice. The Kraken will try to harness their own home crowd to avoid elimination Saturday afternoon.
King James, stay in your lane. (See what I did there?)Still, El-Bashir thinks superstar hockey players are less likely to impose their will.
"Unlike other sports, your best players are only on the ice for 45 seconds at a time. Star players have less of an impact. It's not like LeBron James or other NBA stars who can play the entire 48 minutes."
So as long as King James doesn't lace up skates instead of sneakers for a Kraken opponent, Seattle should have a fighting chance.