Seattle Has Surrendered Advantage In Last Three Games
The Seattle Kraken are single-handedly proving one of the most well-worn of hockey clichés.
"The two-goal lead is the most dangerous in hockey."
In each of the first three games of the Kraken road trip, they built a two-goal cushion, but couldn't protect it.
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Believe it or not, a great deal of academic research has been devoted to how unstable two-goal leads actually are. Though, those who approach the question from a purely logical perspective find the notion patently absurd.
"There is one way the cliche might be true," Andrew Potter wrote at Macleans.ca. "A team might have a better record of holding the lead when it goes up by only one goal than when it goes up by two goals.
"In which case, the obvious coaching strategy when up by a goal would be to insist the players try not to score. Has there ever been such a team?"
Data allows for different conclusions.
David Bailey at CentralMaine.com reviewed all NHL game summaries between January 1-March 15, 2023. In 315 of those games, a team held a two-goal lead during the first two periods. "110 - 34.9% - resulted in a blown two-goal lead. Of those 110 blown leads, 55 resulted in a loss for the 'choking' team and 55 resulted in a win."
That last point is relevant; blowing a two-goal cushion isn't necessarily fatal. As mentioned, Seattle won after relinquishing a two-goal lead to the Red Wings, and gained an OT point in the loss to the Hurricanes.
More than a decade earlier, the number-crunchers at PuckScene.com came up with similar results to Bailey's. As reported by NBCSports.com: "(During the 2010-11 NHL season) a two goal lead was given up 39.52% according to their results.
"Seeing a two-goal lead given up nearly four out of every ten times is incredible. Of the 463 times a team held a two-goal advantage, 183 times that team gave it up."
As to why a two-goal advantage so often vanishes, four reasons are cited by Walter Aguilar, self-described specialist "in the mind-energy connection to high performance."
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“It is a 100% real,” one college coach told CentralMaine.com. “Momentum can change very quickly. If you have a two-goal lead, you’re almost desperate to make it three, and if you’re behind, you just want to cut the lead in half. I think there’s a sensory behavior on each side of that, that has a big influence in the game.”
None of this esoteric examination will help the Kraken turn around a 2-5-2 start. Here's what would: buckling down defensively with a two-goal lead. Or even better, turning it into a three-goal lead.
They'll have their next chance Monday, when they face the Tampa Bay Lightning in the finale of a four game road trip.
