ST. LOUIS -- One of the greater challenges -- and mysteries -- heading into the 2023 NHL Draft in Nashville in June 28-29 is the debate on Russian players and if NHL teams are inclined to take risks on them considering the recent history.
At the forefront of it all is ultra-talented forward Matvei Michkov, who under normal circumstances would be a sure-fire top end pick, and still may wind up being.
Michkov, the 18-year-old who toiled in the KHL this past season SKA St. Petersburg before being loaned to HK Sochi, is at the top of the list of what could be termed as a gamble with Russian prospects this year eligible for draft status.
Many have placed Michkov, who combined for 20 points (nine goals, 11 assists) in 30 games this season in the KHL, in the top five to be picked. And there are some that have him slipping, and not for the raw talent, but from a political standpoint where Russia is at currently in the world view regarding its invasion of Ukraine, and also from the standpoint of a scouting aspect and ability to speak to prospects from that region alone.
Michkov did not attend the NHL Combine in Buffalo from June 4-10, but he is expected to be in Nashville for the draft, and there is growing speculation that his reported unwillingness to speak with all teams interested in talking to him is raising red flags, perhaps having him slip further down in the first round.
Well, what if somehow Michkov fell to the St. Louis Blues at No. 10? Would general manager Doug Armstrong pass on Michkov or any other Russian prospect should they fall in line for the Blues to pick?
Who will Michkov and perhaps some of the other top Russian prospects like Danil But, Mikhail Gulyayev, Roman Kantserov and others speak to? Would Armstrong be alarmed by that?
"We haven't in the past," Armstrong said, who was part of the management team that selected Vladimir Tarasenko with the 16th pick in the 2010 draft. "I think that obviously the political climate is a little bit different and a top-rated Russian player has a long-term that I assume he's going to honor and I assume they're going to make him honor it. That's three years. We haven't had live scouting on them for a while too. This year’s dynamic is different but in general, I think that these players are so far away from playing, I wouldn’t run scared of drafting Russians."
It's hard to envision the Blues passing on Michkov should be somehow, unexpectedly slip down so far. Some have projected should Michkov slip, it's hard to envision he falling out of the eighth pick to the Washington Capitals, where Alex Ovechkin is captain and Evgeny Kuznetzov also plays.
KHL players, like Armstrong said, are under contract for a minimum of three years, and the Blues haven't been known as an organization to rush prospects to the NHL anyway, so even at No. 10, they're OK with allowing them to take time to continue growth, even in Russia.
"Depending on where you’re drafting, three years is a fast track quite honestly for anybody probably outside the top 15 to be impact players," Armstrong said. "I remember again dating myself when I started that you wouldn’t even consider bringing any European players over until they played for the national team in the 90s. You'd let them develop there, you'd let them get into the men’s league, be a good men's league player, play for the national team and come over at 23 or 24. Now we fast track that. With free agency at 27, you want to get guys in the league as quick as possible because you have them for a finight amount of time. But I have no problem in Euro players developing in their own country at their own pace."
North American and even most European players, scouts have easier access to them than say a Russian player, and that data and information can easily be discussed among NHL teams and their scouting departments, but in recent time, it's been more difficult to get those views and access with the Michkovs of the world.
"It’s the live views and it's also the meetings, it's also getting to talk to people around him," Armstrong said. "It’s been shut down. We're relying heavily on a scout from that area and contacts, but it's definitely second-hand information. As much as the live use, it's being able to have communication when you see them at tournaments. They haven’t been participating in the Ivan Hlinka, the U18s, the subway series that goes through Canada. There's a lot of live views that aren’t there, and there's also a lot of getting to know people and getting to know them from different tournaments that's not there either. It's probably pre-cold war Russian scouting than it is post-cold war."
And all things political aside, it seems that the Russian teams, particularly those in the KHL, don't change their plans for growth and development to satisfy the needs of the NHL. But there certainly is enough video clips to see the dynamic elements that Michkov could bring, and he would be an asset to the Blues should be fall to them.
[embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8u7qEnASloM[/embed]
"I wouldn’t assume that we would be able to have a Russian team change their development plans or play a player differently if he's not getting enough ice time because we called and requested that," Armstrong said. "In Finland and Sweden and other countries too, it's very difficult to get players. We drafted one last year (center Aleksanteri Kaskimaki in the third round), watched him play in the Finnish Elite League and he didn’t play a shift. That happens. They brought him up from the junior team and they decided not to play him that day. You just hope that the overall development, the summer training puts them further ahead. To think that you can force their hand into trade or force them into playing them in different situations, let's say you see him as a center and play him in the middle and they want him on the wing, you have to just understand they own the player and they do what they think is best. If that’s not acceptable, you have to sign the player and try to get them to North America. It's nice to have them develop in their own countries at their own pace."