What to Expect Now That Ilya Samsonov's Arbitration Date With the Maple Leafs is Set
An arbitration between the Maple Leafs and Samsonov will begin on July 21 if a deal is not reached between both sides beforehand.
There won't be a long wait to find clarity in Ilya Samsonov's future with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The NHLPA released its arbitration hearing schedule for players who elected to go that route. Samsonov's hearing will take place on July 21, the second-earliest possible date.
Samsonov elected to file for arbitration after a breakthrough first season with the Maple Leafs. The Russian goaltender posted a record of 27-10-5 in 42 games while posting a save percentage of .919. Previously earning $1.8 million, Samsonov is due a substantial raise from his performance. But the question is how much more and what kind of term will fit for both the team and the goaltender?
What can Samsonov ask for in hearing briefs?
Before an arbitration case, both the team and the player will submit a brief of what they are asking for in terms of compensation. Both sides will then make arguments on how they arrived at that number. Only specific evidence is permissible, such as games played (or time off due to injuries), duration of service with a team or in the league, performance-defined statistics, leadership abilities, and comparable player compensation (limited to other restricted free agents).
The last part is key. You don't see a lot of goaltending arbitration cases and the ones over the last year don't really compare to Samsonov.
Dallas Stars Jake Oettinger was a restricted free agent who wasn't eligible for salary arbitration and signed a three-year, $12 million contract last fall. That might be the closest case as Oettinger and Samsonov had identical .919 save percentages last season, but Oettinger played in more games (62) and was coming off his entry-level deal before.
In 2021, Nashville Predators goaltender Jusse Saros avoided arbitration by signing a four-year, $20 million contract. That deal bought unrestricted free-agent years and the goaltender had a career-best .927 save percentage.
In 2022, New York Rangers goaltender Alexandar Georgiev was clearly the backup to Igor Shesterkin. Despite playing in only 33 games and posting a mediocre .895 save percentage, he was traded to the Colorado Avalanche and signed a three-year deal with an average annual value of $3.4 million, his final restricted free-agent deal.
There isn't a clear recent comparable for Samsonov's situation and that might lead to a wild spread in terms of ask from both the team and player.
Can the player and goaltender avoid arbitration?
With an arbitration date set, the Maple Leafs and Samsonov now have a firm deadline to figure out a contract that works best for both sides. It used to be that both player and team can continue to negotiate through hearings until the case was awarded, but an adjustment to the collective bargaining agreement in 2020 put an end to that. Once the hearing begins, the arbitration award will become the players' new contract, provided it doesn't exceed the club walk-away number of $4,538,958 on an average annual basis.
Can the Leafs walk away from Samsonov's arbitration award?
Yes. If the number awarded exceeds $4,538,958 on an average annual basis, the Leafs could walk away from the contract and Samsonov would become an unrestricted free agent.
Arbitration term for Samsonov limited to one year
Under the collective bargaining agreement, the contracts awarded player-elected salary arbitration cannot exceed two seasons. In situations where a player is one year away from unrestricted free agency, that term cannot exceed one year.
The 26-year-old Samsonov is eligible for unrestricted free agency next season and can only be awarded a one-year deal as a result.
When would an arbitration award come out?
Once the hearing begins on the 21st, a ruling must be emailed to both parties within 48 hours after the hearings have closed.
What would happen next for the Leafs?
Once the case is settled or awarded, a second buyout window will open up for Toronto, should they elect to use it. There have been reports that the Leafs may buy out goaltender Matt Murray. Without taking into account the long-term injured reserve contract of Jake Muzzin and his $5.625 million cap hit for 2023-24, the Leafs are currently at $91.5 million in AAV per PuckPedia.com and need to get to a cap number of no more than $83.5 million with 20-23 players on their roster before the regular season begins
The Leafs would save $4 million in cap space this season by buying out Murray's remaining year. The penalty would be a cap charge of $2 million for 2024-25.
During his media availability at the NHL Draft, Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving pointed out the second buyout when he was asked about the topic before the first deadline buyout.
Treliving has used the second buyout window before on a couple of different occasions as GM of the Calgary Flames. First with Troy Brouwer in 2018 and then with Michael Stone in 2019.
Related