Explaining Ilya Samsonov’s arbitration case with the Toronto Maple Leafs and why letting it get to that point is a loss for the club. The Toronto Maple Leafs got some clarity this week when they announced their intention to place oft-injured goaltender Matt Murray on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) before the beginning of the 2023-24 NHL season. The move made it clear that the club intends to be an LTIR team for the duration of the season instead of a daily cap-savings team, where you could add cap space by staying under it as the season moves along. Although Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving hinted at possible changes on defense, it's not too early to take a look at Toronto's roster ahead of the day they need to be under the $83.5 million salary cap. According to Puckpedia, the Maple Leafs have 24 potential NHLers for this season and at that calculation, they would be $2,068,953 over the $83.5 million salary cap. This roster has both Murray and Jake Muzzin (neck) on long-term injured reserve. The roster also includes forward Nick Robertson, assuming he’s healthy enough to return. It also includes Matthew Knies, who made a lasting impression in the playoffs with the Leafs. Other depth signings like depth center Dylan Gambrell (signed to a one-year, $775,000 contract) and defenseman Maxime Lajoie to a one-year, two-way contract worth $775,000 at the NHL level. Taking Lajoie out of the equation, the Leafs would be $1,293,953 over the salary cap with a 23-player roster. Another long-term injury to a player or players sustained in Maple Leafs training camp totaling more than $1,293,953 would render this exercise moot and the club would have no problem carrying 23 players on their active roster to start the season. Last year, the Leafs did not have that luxury and only carried 20 players on their roster until Muzzin was sidelined with the neck issue after four games. START WITH WAIVERS-EXEMPT PLAYERS This would likely be the first step the Leafs go to from an asset management standpoint. If there is any player who is familiar with losing out on a role solely because of his contract, look no further than Nick Robertson. The 21-year-old forward had an excellent training camp last year, but because the Leafs were in a similar cap crunch, he was demoted to the Toronto Marlies and had to wait until space was created for him to get called up. Unfortunately for the player, he sustained a season-ending shoulder injury and his injury history never had him playing the required 160 NHL games necessary for him to require waivers before completing his fifth season. That will help the Leafs in the event they need to send him down again to clear his $796,667 cap hit. The recently-signed Pontus Homberg is also waivers exempt. Given that they have signed Gambrell who isn't exempt, the latter can fill that role if he wins it in training camp. That would shed another $800,000. Those two moves alone will allow the Leafs to be safely under the salary cap with 21 players on their roster. Matthew Knies is another player who is waivers exempt, but it’s unlikely the Leafs would go this route with a prospect who played so well for them during the playoffs. Although it isn't unprecedented. Like Knies, Robertson played in the playoffs in his first year of the NHL in 2020. By next season. Robertson started the season on the team's taxi squad (That was a non-roster designation during the 2021 COVID season). The situations are hardly similar and it's likely the Leafs would just try and toss someone into the waiver wire hoping they'd clear. GOING THE WAIVER ROUTE If the Leafs want to keep someone like Robertson or Holmberg on their roster, another player going on waivers is the likely outcome. In addition to Lajoie needing waivers, Gambrell requires it as well and he could go through the wire and that would give them enough money to be under the cap. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Leafs can easily carry 21 players on their active roster without the addition of anyone else on LTIR. The addition of Murray to the LTIR pool made things a lot simpler for Toronto, more so than last season. 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