Examining the Vancouver Canucks' October 9 and November 23 matchups against the Calgary Flames.
On October 9, the Vancouver Canucks handily won 5–1 against the Calgary Flames to start their 2025–26 season. Last night, 46 days after their home-opener, they put up a 5–2 loss in what some are regarding as one of their worst losses of the year. Let’s take a closer look at what the results of each of these games were and why this could be the case.
Lineups
Of course, the difference between these two games can’t be addressed without considering the changes in the lineup. Injuries have played a big role in how the Canucks have fared this season, and clearly, this is still the case. Six of the players who skated in Vancouver’s home-opener were not in last night’s lineup — three due to injury and three due to scratches or re-assignments.
Evidently, the four forwards who have replaced those who were in Vancouver’s starting night lineup are not as prolific on offence as their counterparts. While none of those four have been major point-producers at the NHL level akin to players like Quinn Hughes or Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil and Jonathan Lekkerimäki in particular are more offensively-minded. While Max Sasson does bring a speedy element to the game similar to Chytil, it’s hard to turn that into the same offensive chances Chytil may be afforded given the less minutes played as a member of the fourth line.
The Shift Chart
Another thing that stands out between these two matches is Vancouver’s difference in shift times. While Calgary’s time-on-ice allotment remained relatively consistent compared to October 9, Vancouver’s has seen a decent increase in certain players partaking in longer or shorter shifts. For example, Pettersson averaged shift lengths of around 0:49 and played a total of 19 on October 9. On the flip side, last night, he averaged 0:56 per shift and played 22. The same can be said for a player like Hughes, whose overall TOI went from 25:07 on October 9 to 30:04 last night. While his shift count between the two matches remains the same (21), the lengths have increased from 1:11 to 1:25.
The amount of shifts given to the Canucks’ depth players has also changed since October 9. In their home-opener, they only had three players with 17 or less shifts — Braeden Cootes, Jake DeBrusk, and Evander Kane, though the latter two did record average shift lengths of 0:54 and 1:06 respectively. Last night, however, they had six — David Kämpf, Linus Karlsson, Aatu Räty, Elias Pettersson (D), Max Sasson, and MacKenzie MacEachern. This means that three of the Canucks’ four centers had 17 shifts or less last night, with none of these players registering average shifts of over 50 seconds.
The Heat Map
A couple of things stick out when looking at the heat maps from October 9 and November 23. First, during their 5–1 win, Vancouver negated putting many chances on net from close to Dustin Wolf, instead having most of their shots come from near the top of the faceoff dot. They were also more effective at keeping the Flames’ close-range shots away from Thatcher Demko. While they did still allow some, there weren’t nearly as many as the amount they allowed in last night’s loss.
One seemingly positive thing from last night (if you can call it that) is that the majority of Vancouver’s chances came from directly in front of Wolf compared to their last outing against the Flames. While their volume of chances were spread pretty evenly across Calgary’s zone, they managed to put up more while netfront. On the flip side, however, they allowed the Flames to generate many more than their last matchup — something that clearly paid off for Calgary. Four of their five goals on the night were scored from within this range.
What’s The Verdict?
There are a couple of things that can be taken away from the numbers analyzed from October 9th’s game and last night’s. Injuries have been consistent since the start of the year, as Teddy Blueger notably did not play in either of these games. With injuries impacting who comes and goes from the lineup, shift times and volumes have been unevenly shifted onto Vancouver’s impact players, forcing them into more situations and making them more tired.
This isn’t all the fault of just injuries, however. While players’ levels of tiredness would definitely impact the quality of chances being produced, the disparity between the chances created and surrendered between these two matchups may come down to another issue — an emphasis on offence taking away from effective defensive zone coverage. It’s the reason that the Canucks are able to generate more chances up-close than they were at the start of the season, as well as why they allowed so many from the Flames. This issue extends past last night’s game, however, evidenced in the fact that the Canucks currently have the highest GA per game with 3.74.
All in all, things aren’t too positive in Canucks land right now. The team is currently on a three-game losing skid and will head to California to take on the Pacific Division-leading Anaheim Ducks. Vancouver, on the other hand, sits at 30th in the NHL with a record of 9–12–2. With the American Thanksgiving deadline looming, the Canucks will need to tighten things up if they hope to salvage this chaotic season.
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