Dec 28, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (8) embraces goalie Logan Thompson (48) as they celebrate a win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images [https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/f31e08da-8967-4ee9-995b-5d6a726644cf.jpeg] Dec 28, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin (8) embraces goalie Logan Thompson (48) as they celebrate a win over the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images As we all continue to recover from our turkey coma, the Washington Capitals are gearing up to host the Toronto Maple Leafs in a black Friday match-up. Both the Leafs and the Capitals would both likely say they didn't get off to the kind of start they wanted to have this season thus far; both teams have struggled with special teams, and both have struggled to find wins. A big difference, however, is that the Capitals have seemingly pulled themselves out of their slump...they are winners in five of their last six games, 6-3-1 in their last 10 games, and currently sit at third in the Metropolitan division. Toronto, on the other hand, is 3-5-2 in their last 10 and sits a point above Buffalo for last in the conference. It's a curious place for a team as talented as Toronto to be in, for sure. The departure of one of their cornerstone forwards in Mitch Marner notwithstanding, this is a team full of talent that has yet to find its footing. Some of this is due to a litany of injuries; until recently, the Leafs were without captain Auston Matthews, Scott Laughton, Matthew Knies, and several others. Unfortunately for Washington, Toronto has gotten most of their key players back from injury, which will make Friday's match all that much tougher. So let's grab some turkey day leftovers and dive into the keys to a Capitals' victory. 5 ON 5 PLAY It's amazing how similar of a start these two teams are off to. Like Washington, Toronto's special teams isn't stellar (though Washington has seen some power play success recently), but both teams are great at 5 on 5, with the Capitals and Leafs ranked second and third respectively at 5 on 5 scoring. I know this has been said on this site ad nauseum, but special teams can be a key difference maker for Washington. While Toronto's penalty kill is ranking better than Washington's so far, it's still very much a work-in-progress. A power play goal or two would certainly be a great way for the Capitals to secure themselves two points on Friday. Likewise, Washington's penalty kill is also very much a work-in-progress, sitting at 29th in the league as of Friday. Unusually, Toronto's historically very good power play is also struggling, ranking at 28th. But any power play with the likes of William Nylander, Matthews, or John Tavares should not be taken lightly. With Matthews returning to the line up, this is a power play unit as dangerous as ever, and Washington needs to stay out of the box to give themselves the best chance at a victory. NULLIFY THE TORONTO OFFENSE (AND DEFENSE) Toronto does have several high-powered offensive players (including budding young forward Easton Cowan) to deal with, but like Washington, they are great at activating their defense to generate scoring. Washington currently leads the league in scoring from defense with 67 points, but Toronto has a respectable 51 points of their own, according to Stat Muse. Keeping Toronto hemmed up in their own zone will (obviously) be helpful to keeping them off the scoreboard, but Washington's defense will surely be called on to help generate scoring and keep the play flowing. The Capitals will just need to remember that the Maple Leafs have Jake McCabe, Morgan Reilly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on their back end, as well as recent acquisition Troy Stecher. This is a defense just as capable of generating offense for Toronto. CAPITALIZE ON LEAF MISTAKES, BUT DON'T UNDERESTIMATE THIS TEAM While most of my articles are very analytics-focused, this blurb will be more subjective, but humor me for a bit. Toronto is one of the other teams I follow fairly closely, and it's been painful at times to watch this team so far this season. A team with this much talent playing so...dysfunctional...it's tough to watch at times. Even after taking all of their injuries into account, they should be higher in the standings than this. If you watch the Leafs, you'll see they have played some pretty mistake-laden hockey this season. Having said that, the Capitals expect to face off against a very potent Leafs roster eager to build on a 2-1 OT win against Columbus. Joseph Woll is likely to start in net, and has played incredibly well for Toronto in the absence of regular starter Anthony Stolarz. Yet, if you watch Toronto in, say, their recent loss to Montreal, you saw how quick puck movement and sharp passing (in addition to taking advantage of Toronto mistakes) allowed the Canadiens to break down Woll (and the rest of the Leafs' blue line) enroute to a 5-2 win. In fact, despite a push in the third, Toronto barely managed anything cohesive through most of the game. This is a blue print on how Washington can handle Toronto. Good puck movement and disciplined hockey should see Washington come away with two points on Friday.
