Despite a frustrating team record, the Senators' 5-on-5 play analytically shines.
The Ottawa Senators can be a frustrating team, and that feeling is familiar to fans.
Through their first eight games, the Senators have compiled a 3-4-1 record for seven points. The frustration stems from the fact that for long stretches, the team plays effectively at five-on-five.
Analytically, the Senators have held their own. According to Natural Stat Trick's data, they rank in the top 10 of the league in some key categories by generating 55.83 percent of the shots (CF%, 3rd), 55.15 percent of the shots on goal (SF%, 4th), 52.77 percent of the expected goals (xGF%, 10th), and 53.99 percent of the scoring chances (SCF%, 7th).
The Senators have done a lot of things well, which has often led head coach Travis Green to echo that sentiment in his post-game availabilities following losses.
It is reminiscent of last season when the team got off to a middling 10-12-1 start. November has not always been kind to the organization, but what belied their record were strong underlying metrics suggesting their record was undeserved.
The parallels with last season are uncanny; defensive breakdowns have let the team down at the most inopportune times, and when many of those mistakes have occurred, their goaltenders have failed to bail them out. Compounding the Senators' problems are the frustrations born out of having the league's second-least successful penalty kill unit and the inconsistencies therein.
Travis Green has praised the penalty kill's efforts when they have been aggressive, making preemptive reads and pressuring skaters, but too often they have fallen prey to playing too passively.
"I think they're relearning where to be aggressive and how to be aggressive," the head coach explained while describing why those inconsistencies exist. "It's not just one person that's everyone reading off it. There's hockey sense involved as well.
"I think we've seen improvements. I really have. We haven't necessarily got the results, but I've seen our team be more aggressive over the last few games."
Watching a passive diamond structure on the penalty kill is painful, and it has become a massive point of contention on the interwebs. The Senators are not alone in employing the strategy, but few teams channel the level of passivity that Ottawa does.
To hear Green praise its effectiveness when it is aggressive creates frustrations because there is that game-in-game-out inconsistency. The structure has been in place for almost 100 games without many significant personnel changes, so something has to give to develop more consistency. If they can foster and deploy that controlled aggressiveness more frequently, it will only help the team and finally quell the discourse.
Getting more saves will help, too.
The Senators cannot continue to save just 87.84 percent of the five-on-five shots. The hope is that over time, that figure will normalize. Linus Ullmark has never had a season in which his five-on-five save percentage has been below 91.30, so it is reasonable to assume that the 88.55 mark that he is currently sporting should improve.
The most encouraging thing about the Senators, beyond the likelihood of some positive regression, is the rate at which they are allowing shots and expected goals.
No team in the league allows fewer shots per 60 at five-on-five (48.48 CA/60) than the Senators. The organization also ranks in the top 10 in shots on goal allowed per 60 (23.68 SA/60), expected goals allowed per 60 (2.26 xGA/60), scoring chances allowed per 60 (24.00 SCA/60), and high-danger chances allowed per 60 (10.24 HDCA/60) per Natural Stat Trick.
HockeyViz's data corroborates that data.
Defensively, the Senators are doing many things well.
Suppose they can tighten up and limit those big moment defensive miscues, while simultaneously experiencing gains at the goaltending position and on the penalty kill. In that case, the team stands a great chance of staying in the thick of the standings, which is where they ideally will be when a healthy Brady Tkachuk returns to the lineup.
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