BetMGM has Connor McDavid as a big favorite to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL's MVP. But who are the next closest players to watch?
BetMGM has Connor McDavid as a big favorite to win the Hart Trophy as the NHL's MVP. But who are the next closest players to watch?
With the NHL season entering the second half, it’s a good time to see where we’re at in the betting markets. A lot has changed since the puck first dropped in early October.
Hockey is challenging to bet on due to its inherent randomness. It’s a sport played on ice with boots with sharp blades attached underneath while blasting a piece of vulcanized rubber that can travel upwards of 100 m.p.h. with sticks made of carbon fiber. The puck can bounce in all sorts of ways, injuries and fatigue are common, and year-to-year production can depend on luck.
Here are your betting favourites, along with some insights from BetMGM Sportsbook and some dark horse picks. Ticket% refers to the percentage of all bets placed on a particular player, Handle% means the percentage of all money bet on a certain player and biggest liability refers to the player who has been bet on the most in terms of total money.
Betting odds and numbers are as of Jan. 19, 2023.
Hart Memorial
Highest Ticket%: Connor McDavid, 31.1 percent
Highest Handle%: Connor McDavid, 62.1 percent
Biggest Liabilities: Connor McDavid
Current Odds Leaders: Connor McDavid -350, David Pastrnak +1400, Jason Robertson/Nikita Kucherov +1600
Opening Odds Leaders: Connor McDavid +300, Auston Matthews +450, Leon Draisaitl +650
The Hart is voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association, and it’s pretty obvious to everyone that McDavid is by far the league’s best offensive player. No one comes close, and McDavid is on pace to score 150 points, which would be the highest in the cap era by a 22-point margin over Nikita Kucherov’s 2018-19 campaign. Even if the Oilers somehow miss the playoffs, even the staunchest of voters who believe MVPs must be on playoff-bound teams would have to set aside their principles for McDavid’s truly exceptional season.
There is no real dark horse because nobody comes close. Voting for anyone else feels like a fool’s errand, but it’s worth pointing out that Cale Makar is second in Ticket% (14.6 percent) and Handle% (6.8 percent), followed by Nathan MacKinnon in Ticket% (8.3 percent) and Jason Robertson in Handle% (6.5 percent). In other words, while MacKinnon ranks third in total bets, more total money has been bet on Robertson to win than Mackinnon. (Shout out to those who placed bets on Alex Nedeljkovic, who is 0.1 percent in Ticket%, the most egregious name on the list and currently off the board).
While Pastrnak, Robertson and Kucherov are at the top of the list, you could easily point out other players on their respective teams who could also claim to be MVPs, namely Linus Ullmark and Jake Oettinger. But their scoring pace is so far off from McDavid’s that their inclusion is more of a formality, and the race for the Hart would only open up if McDavid suffers some sort of long-term injury or if they average two points per game the rest of the way and help their team secure the top spot in the league.
Players who were off the board at the beginning of the season but have at least two percent of the total Ticket% include Tage Thompson (+2000) and Jack Hughes (+2000), both of whom have incredible breakout seasons and should be on the betting board next season.